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Should the FOMC End Fed Funds Targeting? Issue CMOs?
As Chairman Powell said in the latest FOMC presser, the SOMA reinvestment plan is intended to get their duration down to that of the Treasury debt outstanding by allowing long duration MBS to be replaced by short-duration T-bills. Could the Fed have continued to shrink the SOMA further as Bowman and others have urged?
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Nov 5, 20259 min read


Trump to Fire Jay Powell? No. Bank Earnings? Nada. Bayview for Sale?
President Trump will not try to fire Chairman Powell. Why not? First, because Powell cannot be removed save for malfeasance. Second, because firing Powell would seriously piss off Senate Republicans, killing Trump's hopes for tax legislation this year.
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Apr 22, 20256 min read


Powell Fed Dithers on Inflation as the Trump Rally Fizzles
Kevin Hasset is now effectively Powell’s boss on everything other than monetary policy.
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Feb 18, 20258 min read


QT + Lower Federal Outlays = ?
Banks continue to show a strong preference for late vintage loans over securities, a fact which may cause loan yields to continue falling
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Feb 11, 20255 min read
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