The Institutional Risk Analyst

Why is Secretary Bessent talking publicly about Powell or the Fed at all? How does this squawking enhance the credibility of the Trump Administration or the U.S. Treasury?

With a budget deficit projected to be $1.8 trillion in 2024, the odds of the FOMC actually controlling inflation are pretty low.

When NYC is forced to recognize reality, it will already be too late to avoid another fiscal crisis.

We think that further Fed tightening, plus sales of MBS from FDIC and banks generally, may force mortgage rates higher into the 7% range

Is 2023 the year of the Return of the Distressed Loan Trade?

“I know many owners and CEOs of residential lenders… and would never bet against their success. They represent a very savvy, entrepreneurial, and street-smart group of individuals but are faced with many risks, with LO comp, technology, housing inventory, and shrinking margins in the forefront.”

This week The IRA will be at the MBA Secondary Market Conference & Expo, as always held at the Marriott Marquis in Times Square. The 8th floor reception and bar is where folks generally hang out. Attendees should not miss the panel on mortgage servicing rights at 3:00 PM Monday. We’ll give our impressions of this important conference in the next edition of The Institutional Risk Analyst.

Mortgage Finance: Crime & Punishment: When you have a regulator as brutal and arbitrary as the CFPB, an assortment of fixers are advisable. But no more. With the impending lobotomy of the CFPB now at hand, the street value of former CFPB regulators has fallen to a discount, says one well-placed Washington lawyer.