The Institutional Risk Analyst

As the war with Iran continues to fester, we suspect that there will eventually be a majority on the Federal Open Market Committee to raise short-term interest rates – whether or not Warsh joins the majority or even votes for the move. With the Treasury running a fiscal deficit of 6% of GDP, we think the FOMC has little hope of slowing inflation but may soon be dealing with a slowing economy -- this despite the massive fiscal stimulus.

Meanwhile, Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of Strategy (MSTR), f/k/a MicroStrategy, stated that the company will "probably sell some Bitcoin" to fund dividends and "inoculate the market," after the firm (now holding hundreds of thousands of coins) faced consecutive quarterly losses. This change marks a stark reversal in Saylor’s public position regarding the value of bitcoin.

The Basel Accord is one of the single biggest examples of a regulatory agency literally creating a new law from whole cloth.