The Institutional Risk Analyst

In this edition of The Institutional Risk Analyst, we ponder the world of credit and investing as sovereign nations see their debt ratings sinking below that of global corporations. Meanwhile, the price of gold is reaching new highs. Then we set up the Q3 earnings of the top-seven US depositories for subscribers to our Premium Service as we surge into quarter end with equity markets at all-time highs and global central banks turning the money spigots wide open.

Citi has grown corporate loans 10% to $330 million at the end of Q2 2025. In fact, Citi increased its full-year net interest income guidance and raised its revenue forecast to the high end of its previous range. Citi saw assets and NII grow in 2025, but efficiency remained in the low 60s, a tangible indication that Fraser is making progress.

Citi seems to be tracking the group now, whereas pre-COVID the stock significantly underperformed in terms of market beta. But performance?

If Fraser cannot articulate a coherent reason to keep the business together, a breakup may be the most sensible strategy.