The Institutional Risk Analyst

The fact that Secretary Bessent felt the need to make an announcement of increased bond buybacks in front to the 20-year auction suggests that the Treasury is expecting more weak auctions going forward. How else do we explain Bessent’s behavior? But more important, when will President Trump and Secretary Bessent stop pretending that the situation in the Treasury debt market is not a problem?

Xi Jinping in China and Putin in Russia have turned their backs on the global economy to retain power

Most adherents to free market economic ideas agree with the 20th Century American economist Irving Fisher (1867-1947) in rejecting the idea of a discernable “business cycle” along with speculations about natural or neutral interest rates. Concepts like neutral interest rates, equilibrium and full employment are, by definition, indefinite and speculative, much like calculating the position of an object moving through space-time, to borrow from the work of Stephen William Hawki