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The Institutional Risk Analyst


Critiquing Bill Ackman Statement on GSE Release
Cute reference to "average cost," but total return to date would be of greater interest.
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Jan 28 min read


Liquidity & Rates Fall as Trump Trades Beckon
What does the upsurge in repo rates at the end of September suggest? None of the media who supposedly cover the Fed seem able to ask.
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Dec 23, 20247 min read


Liquidity Preference: SVB Financial Group, WaMu & Reemerging GSEs
Selling the Treasury's control position in the GSEs while dragging the furious shareholders along behind is not an attractive opportunity
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Dec 12, 20247 min read


Kamikaze GSE Release? Oh Yeah...
Yes, that's right, we are going to downgrade $8 trillion in GSE MBS and hundreds of billions in corporate debt.
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Dec 10, 202415 min read


Update: Blend Labs Inc.
BLND is generating operating leverage via cost reductions, another way of saying that management is slowly winding up the business.
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Dec 5, 20244 min read


The Trump Trade & Sovereign Ratings
What happens to the Trump Trade and the broader equity markets if the FOMC passes on a December rate cut?
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Dec 4, 20246 min read


Fiat Currencies, GSEs & Presidents
Could President elect Donald Trump be facing a maxi market correction before inauguration day?
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Nov 13, 20246 min read


Financials: Post-Trump Victory Notes
The changes that are going to occur in Washington over the next four years will be dramatically different than during Trump I.
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Nov 6, 20245 min read


Is Trump Bullish for Interest Rates? Pump & Dump for GSE and Fintech Stocks
You can tell lies and damn lies about the idea of releasing Fannie and Freddie, but the SEC and FINRA cannot and will not say a word.
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Oct 30, 20246 min read


Hurricanes, Insurance & the Cost of Risk
Many homes in FL no longer have adequate home owners insurance much less federal flood insurance.
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Oct 10, 20246 min read


Update: Our Top Five Ideas
How will the sudden shift in Fed policy impact financials? Are we headed for a recession?
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Sep 24, 20246 min read


GSE Release Under Trump? Post-Rate Cut Margin Calls??
Why should a private Fannie Mae be a 20% risk weight under Basel III, but PFSI or Mr. Cooper (COOP) are 100%?
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Sep 22, 20248 min read


Powell FOMC Goes Big and Political
If President Donald Trump wins in November, he’ll be more than justified in demanding Jerome Powell’s immediate resignation.
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Sep 19, 20244 min read


Will Donald Trump Release Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac?? Really?
If JPM, PFSI or UWMC want to pay the government to wrap conventional MBS in a “AA+” sovereign rating, why should the Treasury say no?
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Jul 21, 20249 min read


Yellen FSOC Punts on Mortgage Servicers; WGA Bottom 25 Banks
Are there bank bargains down in the cellar waiting to be discovered?
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May 13, 20247 min read


End of Fintech? Biden GSE Release?
Is AFRM maturing from a hot new fintech entrant to a familiar face headed for a bank license?? Yikes.
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Dec 31, 20237 min read


Rates Rally Financials, But Credit Fears Remain
The key term for risk managers and investors in 2024 remains unchanged from this year: Volatility.
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Dec 15, 20237 min read


Recessions Signs in Texas & China
The mood in the Dallas mortgage community is subdued, much like the atmosphere after an especially good party.
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Nov 17, 20236 min read


Will Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Raise Guarantee Fees?
With a 75bp average total gfee, would the market for private label MBS return? Or would conventional lending volumes simply crater?
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Sep 25, 20236 min read


Brief: The Return of Home Equity Loans
Every residential mortgage loan made in 2020-2021 is likely to be underwater by the end of 2023
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Nov 7, 20227 min read
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