The Institutional Risk Analyst

Below we set up Goldman, Morgan Stanley and the other asset gatherers as we go into Q3 2025 earning this week.  As you might expect, GS is ahead of where it was a year ago in terms of non-interest income, earnings overall and equity market value.

Some of the largest banks by assets have dropped from the top quartile into the bottom half of the distribution for the top 100 banks

Private equity portfolio companies are about 10 times as likely to go bankrupt as non-PE-owned companies.

Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities

We think it is reasonable to push expectations of a cut in the target for Fed funds into Q1 2025.