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Equity Market Valuations & Quantitative Tightening
The reduction in the Fed's balance sheet is the largest ever margin call on equity exposures of all descriptions.
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May 23, 20227 min read


Update: Crypto Frauds and Fintech Dreams
Q: What do Elon Musk and Masayoshi Son have in common? Gigantic margin loans...
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May 18, 20226 min read


Interview: Dan Sogorka of Sagent Lending Technologies
The new technology that powers the Sagent-Cooper vision for servicing is already proven in the market
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May 16, 20227 min read


Feldkamp: Paul Volcker, Volatility, Inflation & Honesty
Benevolence, as Chris and I noted in our book "Financial Stability," always gets you more bang for the buck than being miserable.
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May 13, 20225 min read


Does ICE + Black Knight = Shareholder Value?
ICE buying the revenue streams represented by BKI is a big bet on yesterday, not a bold initiative to change the mortgage industry
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May 11, 20228 min read


Chairman Powell's Duration Problem
Chairman Powell’s demeanor during the press conference when he spoke with Mike McKee suggests a man who knows he has a problem.
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May 8, 20228 min read


Interest Rates, Credit and MSRs
Even as Powell signals willingness to take interest rate targets higher, he has put off a decision on the Fed's balance sheet until June.
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May 4, 20225 min read


Where is Value in Fintech?
Take the financials and add some unicorn dust in terms of innovation to the mix and perhaps a double-digit PE ratio for PYPL makes sense.
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May 2, 20225 min read


Flagstar Bancorp & Annaly Capital: All About Visibility
No amount of computer power can really, really enable you to predict when Fred and Wilma are going to sell or refinance their home.
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Apr 28, 20225 min read


Deflation, Not Inflation, is the Threat
Xi Jinping in China and Putin in Russia have turned their backs on the global economy to retain power
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Apr 26, 20226 min read


Update: Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) and Silvergate Corp (SI)
There are virtually no conventional lenders in the US today that are profitable when the sell a loan into the secondary market.
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Apr 22, 20226 min read


Ukraine & the Return of Credit Risk
Just imagine how global markets will react when Putin deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Eastern Ukraine to avoid a military defeat
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Apr 20, 20225 min read


Profile: Morgan Stanley vs Goldman Sachs
Simply stated, Morgan Stanley has a much more diverse and sustainable business model than Goldman Sachs...
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Apr 17, 20226 min read


Weak Bank Earnings & Surging Interest Rates = Lower Valuations
Will Fed Chairman Jay Powell fold in terms of further rate hikes if the S&P 500 falls 1,000 points in a day?
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Apr 11, 20225 min read


The Next Trade: Banks, Nonbanks and Mortgage Servicing Rights
Many of the startups, investment flows and SPAC transactions that proliferated in 2020-2021 are likely to be casualties in the next several
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Apr 6, 20224 min read


The Residential Mortgage Finance Top Twenty Seven
Who is going to acquire and restructure Blend Labs (BLND) before this newbie-fintech-something runs out of cash?
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Apr 4, 20222 min read


Why the FOMC Cannot Sell its Mortgage Bonds
With MBS prices falling, the FOMC may have to accept the natural runoff rate for the MBS in the SOMA for many years to come
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Mar 31, 20225 min read


Top Five US Banks: USB, JPM, WFC, C & BAC
Valuations for the top five US banks are up slightly as Q1 2022 comes to an end
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Mar 28, 20226 min read


Will SOFR Be the Death of Jay Powell?
If the Fed causes another liquidity crisis as it ends QE and shrinks the balance sheet, then Chairman Powell should immediately resign.
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Mar 21, 20226 min read


QE, Risk Premia and Option Adjusted Spreads
There a brisk debate ongoing in the fixed income markets over how much the Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates and when
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Mar 15, 20225 min read
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