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Powell FOMC Folds on Inflation
As the federal debt rises, bank reserves must rise as well and with it inflation.
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Sep 9, 20249 min read


Banks: Passive Strategies Lag Active Management
In the third quarter of publishing the Indices, so far picking quality banks seems to matter more than following the passive ETF herd
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Sep 4, 20245 min read


Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF
Axos continues to rebound after the bear raid by Hindenburg Research. AX ranked 18th in the WGA Bank Top Index in Q3 2024 vs 98th for SOFI
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Sep 2, 202412 min read


Universal Banks: Should TD Buy Schwab & Sell Its US Operation?
SCHW needs to take advantage of their strong operating leverage and repair some needless damage done during COVID by inept bank management.
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Aug 25, 20247 min read


New & Old Names in Nonbank Finance
In dollar terms, the moves in 2023 were tiny vs the post March rally in 2020.
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Aug 21, 20247 min read


The Top Seven Banks: JPM, BAC, C, WFC, USB, PNC & TFC
Banks lose money every single day by holding onto a below market security from the 2019-2021 period.
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Aug 18, 20249 min read


Bank of Nova Scotia + KeyCorp = ??
If you were really, REALLY going to do mortgage warehouse lending in today's market, KEY would be the better platform, not BNS.
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Aug 13, 20246 min read


The Powell Hedge Fund Drives Private Market Instability
In 2019, the FOMC essentially nationalized the US money markets, eliminating private price discovery for a representation of a market.
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Aug 12, 20247 min read


Market Volatility and Loan Defaults
The market tantrum which began on Friday was largely over by the market close on the following Tuesday.
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Aug 8, 20246 min read


Wine, Grapes & Inflation; WGA Bank Top 50 Index Q3 2024
The WGA Bank Top 50 is, well, the top half of the population, but far better in quality than the bottom quartile.
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Aug 5, 20245 min read


Stocks Swoon, Retail Credit Rises: PYPL, SQ & ARES
The rotation away from institutional investors to retail funding source for the $1.7 trillion direct lending market is an ominous sign
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Aug 2, 20248 min read


Update: New York Community Bank & Mr. Cooper
Joe Otting does not seem to understand the value of the Flagstar correspondent lending and mortgage servicing business...
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Jul 27, 20248 min read


Update: CapitalOne Financial & PennyMac Financial Services
Of note, PFSI has been growing share in wholesale, a direct challenge to UWMC
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Jul 24, 20245 min read


Update: Pinnacle Financial & Synthetic Credit Risk Transfer
We hear in the channel that banks with festering multifamily exposures are paying north of 10% for similar CRT transactions.
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Jul 18, 20246 min read


Bank Earnings: JPM, BAC, AX, GS & SCHW
GS saw loss provisions fall slightly in Q2 2024 to $282 million but the number was still $600 million in the first half of the year...
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Jul 17, 20245 min read


Should the US Exit the Basel Accord in Trump II?
The Basel Accord is one of the single biggest examples of a regulatory agency literally creating a new law from whole cloth.
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Jul 15, 20248 min read


Earnings Setup: Consumer Lenders | ALLY AXP AX BCS COF SOFI SYF
The first comment to make is that consumer defaults are rising across the board. The only question we need to consider is the rate of change
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Jul 11, 20245 min read


Goldman Sachs Fails Fed Stress Test
Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities
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Jul 7, 202410 min read


Who Leads the Asset Gatherers? | SCHW, MS, GS, AMP, RJF & SF
The larger banks led the way in January and February, but today the top 25 names in terms of total return include many smaller banks.
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Jul 3, 20247 min read


USSC Kills Chevron | Zombie Banks Pass Stress Tests?
The Fed bank stress tests are another sign of magical thinking in Washington.
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Jul 1, 20248 min read
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