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Update: Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) and Silvergate Corp (SI)
There are virtually no conventional lenders in the US today that are profitable when the sell a loan into the secondary market.
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Apr 22, 20226 min read


Ukraine & the Return of Credit Risk
Just imagine how global markets will react when Putin deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Eastern Ukraine to avoid a military defeat
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Apr 20, 20225 min read


Profile: Morgan Stanley vs Goldman Sachs
Simply stated, Morgan Stanley has a much more diverse and sustainable business model than Goldman Sachs...
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Apr 17, 20226 min read


Weak Bank Earnings & Surging Interest Rates = Lower Valuations
Will Fed Chairman Jay Powell fold in terms of further rate hikes if the S&P 500 falls 1,000 points in a day?
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Apr 11, 20225 min read


Top Five US Banks: USB, JPM, WFC, C & BAC
Valuations for the top five US banks are up slightly as Q1 2022 comes to an end
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Mar 28, 20226 min read


Will SOFR Be the Death of Jay Powell?
If the Fed causes another liquidity crisis as it ends QE and shrinks the balance sheet, then Chairman Powell should immediately resign.
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Mar 21, 20226 min read


QE, Risk Premia and Option Adjusted Spreads
There a brisk debate ongoing in the fixed income markets over how much the Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates and when
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Mar 15, 20225 min read


A Tale of Two Mortgage SPACs: UWMC and FOA
Why did FOA write down $1.4 billion in intangible equity, yet UWM took no similar write down?
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Mar 9, 20224 min read


The IRA Bank Book Q1 2022 | Credit Risk Returns
We add a new dimension of risk to the normalization of US bank earnings with the Russian war against Ukraine.
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Mar 7, 202211 min read


When "Force Majeure" Isn't Quite
The imposition of sanctions on Russia is not as comprehensive as some press reports suggest.
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Mar 1, 20223 min read


Profile: Silvergate Capital Corp (SI)
SI’s management team is taking advantage of the narrative in Washington, which is that stable coins will be a bank only product
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Feb 16, 20226 min read


Profile: NexBank Capital, Inc.
Among the ten largest mortgage specialization banks, NexBank had among the best equity returns in Q3 2021
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Feb 10, 20226 min read


Profile: Citigroup (C)
Why does this bank exist? What market does it serve and how will it grow in the future?
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Jan 27, 20226 min read


Profile: Cross River Bank
Bottom line, when a bank seems to be doing much better than other banks, there is usually a reason and that reason is almost always bad
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Jan 19, 20226 min read


Q4 Earnings | Big Banks & QE
In the short-run rising interest rates and spreads will help bank earnings. But where is the next credit hot spot?
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Jan 12, 20228 min read


Mortgage Crises Yesterday and Today
As we move into Q4 2021 earnings, keep your eyes peeled for news of restructuring of urban commercial commercial and multifamily properties
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Jan 4, 20226 min read


Update: Block Inc. & Upstart Holdings
Is SQ really, REALLY worth 25x book value? Our respectful answer to that question is no.
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Dec 22, 20219 min read


A Bull Case for US Banks?
We ask whether bank fundamentals are starting to catch up to the very full equity market valuations , up 40% since the end of 2020
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Dec 13, 202111 min read


Fed Tightens Months Late, Even as it Attacks Liquidity
any of the problems that the Fed now seeks to fix, starting with the unnecessary elimination of LIBOR, are a function of earlier policies...
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Dec 7, 20217 min read


Profile: Raymond James Financial
RJF is one of those quiet high-performer banks in the investment world that few understand but many own in LT portfolio
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Nov 18, 20214 min read
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