The Powell Hedge Fund Drives Private Market Instability
In 2019, the FOMC essentially nationalized the US money markets, eliminating private price discovery for a representation of a market.
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 86 min
Market Volatility and Loan Defaults
The market tantrum which began on Friday was largely over by the market close on the following Tuesday.
1,172 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 306 min
Yellen's FSOC: Housing Policy Dreams vs Mortgage Market Reality
Yellen's proposal for a backstop is merely a canard to help Treasury avoid another fiasco next time a Ginnie Mae issuer fails
712 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 109 min
Interview: Robert Brusca on the Federal Open Market Committee
Powell won’t hit the two percent target, but he won’t change the target either.
683 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 186 min
Home Mortgage Rates Falling? Really?
If President Trump starts talking about fixing the federal budget deficit and redeveloping moribund urban real estate, he’d win in November
1,502 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 88 min
Bank Reserves & Treasury Auctions
As the public debt of the US grows, after all, the implicit claim of the Treasury on all private US assets also grows.
1,210 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 13, 20238 min
Big What? Rising Debt Service & Falling Liquidity
As with the Volcker Rule for banks, the move to centralized clearing of Treasuries and T-1 settlement seems destined to reduce liquidity
857 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 7, 20236 min
Biden Administration Staggers Toward a Debt Default
Whether we have Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the White House next Christmas, the US seems to be on a trajectory to a financial crisis...
1,985 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 28, 20235 min
Washington Trip Notes; Mr. Cooper & PennyMac Financial
The last Treasury Secretary that tried to extend the maturities of US government debt was Jack Lew (2013-2017). Yellen missed an opportunity
653 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 1, 20236 min
The False Narrative on First Republic Bank
Until Chairman Powell comes clean with the Congress and the American people, more banks will inevitably fail.
5,204 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 26, 20236 min
Who Killed First Republic Bank?
The Treasury and Fed cannot admit fault for fear of bringing the whole house of cards crashing down.
3,338 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 17, 20227 min
Extension Risk Threatens US Banks
There are literally dozens of banks in the US made insolvent by the policy moves of the FOMC over the past year.
1,213 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 2, 20226 min
Terminal Rates & Conflicted Economists
The cult of ever falling interest rates goes back 50 years and spans the terms of Fed chairs back to Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker...
700 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 18, 20229 min
Inflation, Politics & Fed Chairmen
As the scale of Fed open market operations grew since 2008, volatility has increased, rendering the adjustment from QE to QT problematic
1,062 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 26, 20226 min
Deflation, Not Inflation, is the Threat
Xi Jinping in China and Putin in Russia have turned their backs on the global economy to retain power
1,149 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 14, 20226 min
The Curse of Humphrey Hawkins
If you consider QE “stimulus” inflationary, then Fed policy actually accelerated inflation in the November-January period.
1,005 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 6, 20215 min
Powell Reappointment Still Likely
Amidst the yelling and screaming of Elizabeth Warren, we suspect that Jay Powell will survive the crisis
416 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 13, 20217 min
Debt Ceilings & Interest Rate Floors
When Treasury market yields trade and stay negative, look for the Federal Reserve Board to come to the rescue of MM funds and banks.
840 views
Christopher Whalen
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