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The Institutional Risk Analyst
© 2003-2025 | Whalen Global Advisors LLC All Rights Reserved in All Media | ISSN 2692-1812
Banks | Markets | Finance


Ray Dalio is Wrong About the Treasury Bond Market
When Ray Dalio says to be afraid of the bond market, he is asking a question that belongs in the mid-1970s, when the dollar still competed with other currencies and US interest rates were actually affected by interest rates in other nations. But today, with many of the other industrial nations led by Japan, China and the EU literally drowning in public debt, the US is still the leader of the parade.
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Jun 56 min read
1,221 views


Housing Finance Outlook | Q3 2025
We expect to see continued consolidation in the world of residential mortgage finance in coming months. The sad fact is that many less competitive businesses in mortgage finance have been waiting for the FOMC to ride to the rescue with lower interest rates. If rate cuts do not materialize in 2025, however, then many of these businesses may not survive.
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May 279 min read
273 views


Budget Reconciliation, Fiscal Credibility & GSE Release
The Trump budget package is priority number one on Capitol Hill, but odds of the big tax bill passing are falling every day. The White House still needs 25 votes in the House and May is upon us.
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Apr 247 min read
1,150 views


Trading Points: Banks, Interest Rates & MSRs
Some of the smaller holders of MSRs may ask themselves if selling right now is not the best strategy over a 36-48 month horizon.Â
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Apr 168 min read
489 views


Trade, Taxes & GSE Release
Who are the two most powerful people in the Trump White House?
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Apr 94 min read
377 views


Memo to Bill Pulte and Scott Turner: How to Make Housing More Affordable
A more efficient mortgage backed securities market benefits everyone by lowering mortgage rates and making home ownership more affordable.
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Mar 256 min read
715 views


Housing Finance Outlook | Q2 2025
There is an old rule on Wall Street that industry sectors like airlines and auto manufacturers are trades rather than investments...
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Mar 1611 min read
1,070 views


Trading Points: Trump, Housing & Private Credit
President Trump is using the threat of tariffs to change the behavior of some of our trading partners, particularly Canada and Mexico.Â
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Mar 57 min read
446 views


Trump, Musk & the Dollar
The real threat of tariffs announced by Trump is not inflation, but rather a LT decline in the dollar as the global reserve currency
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Feb 46 min read
513 views


GSE Release? Really. What Do JPM and BAC Say About 2025 Earnings?
Without profits from commissions and capital markets, BAC would have reported a down quarter due to higher funding and operating expenses.
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Jan 166 min read
451 views


Trump, Risk and Liquidity
With Gov Michael Barr stepping down from bank supervision, perhaps Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is more willing to test liquidity lower bound
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Jan 87 min read
175 views


Critiquing Bill Ackman Statement on GSE Release
Cute reference to "average cost," but total return to date would be of greater interest.
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Jan 28 min read
2,550 views


Liquidity & Rates Fall as Trump Trades Beckon
What does the upsurge in repo rates at the end of September suggest? None of the media who supposedly cover the Fed seem able to ask.
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Dec 23, 20247 min read
451 views


Liquidity Preference: SVB Financial Group, WaMu & Reemerging GSEs
Selling the Treasury's control position in the GSEs while dragging the furious shareholders along behind is not an attractive opportunity
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Dec 12, 20247 min read
498 views


Kamikaze GSE Release? Oh Yeah...
Yes, that's right, we are going to downgrade $8 trillion in GSE MBS and hundreds of billions in corporate debt.
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Dec 10, 202415 min read
3,470 views


Update: Blend Labs Inc.
BLND is generating operating leverage via cost reductions, another way of saying that management is slowly winding up the business.
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Dec 5, 20244 min read
350 views


The Trump Trade & Sovereign Ratings
What happens to the Trump Trade and the broader equity markets if the FOMC passes on a December rate cut?
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Dec 4, 20246 min read
603 views


Fiat Currencies, GSEs & Presidents
Could President elect Donald Trump be facing a maxi market correction before inauguration day?
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Nov 13, 20246 min read
881 views


Financials: Post-Trump Victory Notes
The changes that are going to occur in Washington over the next four years will be dramatically different than during Trump I.
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Nov 6, 20245 min read
1,106 views


Is Trump Bullish for Interest Rates? Pump & Dump for GSE and Fintech Stocks
You can tell lies and damn lies about the idea of releasing Fannie and Freddie, but the SEC and FINRA cannot and will not say a word.Â
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Oct 30, 20246 min read
812 views
Christopher Whalen
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