The Institutional Risk Analyst

When Ray Dalio says to be afraid of the bond market, he is asking a question that belongs in the mid-1970s, when the dollar still competed with other currencies and US interest rates were actually affected by interest rates in other nations. But today, with many of the other industrial nations led by Japan, China and the EU literally drowning in public debt, the US is still the leader of the parade.

We expect to see continued consolidation in the world of residential mortgage finance in coming months. The sad fact is that many less competitive businesses in mortgage finance have been waiting for the FOMC to ride to the rescue with lower interest rates. If rate cuts do not materialize in 2025, however, then many of these businesses may not survive.

The Trump budget package is priority number one on Capitol Hill, but odds of the big tax bill passing are falling every day. The White House still needs 25 votes in the House and May is upon us.

Some of the smaller holders of MSRs may ask themselves if selling right now is not the best strategy over a 36-48 month horizon. 

Who are the two most powerful people in the Trump White House?

A more efficient mortgage backed securities market benefits everyone by lowering mortgage rates and making home ownership more affordable.

There is an old rule on Wall Street that industry sectors like airlines and auto manufacturers are trades rather than investments...

President Trump is using the threat of tariffs to change the behavior of some of our trading partners, particularly Canada and Mexico. 

The real threat of tariffs announced by Trump is not inflation, but rather a LT decline in the dollar as the global reserve currency

Without profits from commissions and capital markets, BAC would have reported a down quarter due to higher funding and operating expenses.

With Gov Michael Barr stepping down from bank supervision, perhaps Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is more willing to test liquidity lower bound

Cute reference to "average cost," but total return to date would be of greater interest.

What does the upsurge in repo rates at the end of September suggest? None of the media who supposedly cover the Fed seem able to ask.

Selling the Treasury's control position in the GSEs while dragging the furious shareholders along behind is not an attractive opportunity

Yes, that's right, we are going to downgrade $8 trillion in GSE MBS and hundreds of billions in corporate debt.

BLND is generating operating leverage via cost reductions, another way of saying that management is slowly winding up the business.

What happens to the Trump Trade and the broader equity markets if the FOMC passes on a December rate cut?

Could President elect Donald Trump be facing a maxi market correction before inauguration day?

The changes that are going to occur in Washington over the next four years will be dramatically different than during Trump I.

You can tell lies and damn lies about the idea of releasing Fannie and Freddie, but the SEC and FINRA cannot and will not say a word.