New York | We have released the latest edition of The IRA Bank Book for Q2 2020, which is now for sale in The Institutional Risk Analyst online store. Suffice to say that our estimates for loan loss provisions in Q1 were reasonably close, but still understated the credit tsunami that is approaching US banks and bond investors.
To paraphrase the character King Willie in the 1990 Stephen Hopkins film “Predator 2,” Q2 2020 bank earnings will be "dread man, truly dread." The chart below shows asset and equity returns for all US banks through Q1 2020. Take a guess where those two lines are headed in Q2.