Achim Dübel: Geopolitical Risks of the 2020 Election
In this issue of The Institutional Risk Analyst, Hans-Joachim (Achim) Dübel of Finpolconsult.de in Berlin offers a geopolitical assessment of the return to power of the war party in Washington. Look through the eyes of the tyrant, the arms merchant or oil company, and you understand the Great Game in the 21st Century.
“When we decided to become a global empire after the war, it was Harry Truman who dropped two atomic bombs on Japan and made us a national security state and a militarized economy. Our citizens were not advised, they still don't know. They still think that it's a free, open country, but we decided to stay armed and to be involved in every country in the world. That was their decision - and who are 'they'? They are traditionally the very wealthy: the one per cent that my cousin Al Gore dared mention at one point in the campaign as owning practically all the property in the country.”
Berlin | A drama is unfolding for Korea. President Donald Trump was a once in a generation chance for reunification on the East Asian peninsula, as President Ronald Reagan was for Germany almost half a century ago. With the victory of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the pro-war tendency in America that goes back to President Harry Truman returns to power. The consequences for Korea and many other nations around the world will be terrible.
It was Reagan himself, not the CIA man President George H.W. Bush, who followed him, who pushed for the first covert and then overt operation to bring the Berlin wall down. It was Reagan's Jacksonian sense of independence and his personal charm that convinced a reluctant Soviet leadership and domestic administration apparatus alike to follow. Reagan did most of the job in his second term, after he had gained control – and had survived an assassination attempt.
Now the old British-American war networks that have dominated U.S. administration since the murder of President John F. Kennedy will take over again. When the debris of the wall was still lying around in Berlin, George H.W. Bush in 1991 blocked Helmut Kohl in his effort to build a joint European house together with Russia. Under President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the tension with Russia led into the current New Cold War. The new de-facto President of the United States, Kamala Harris, will now stop every effort to bring regional peace and cooperation.
Harris was the first candidate to drop out of the Democrat’s race due to her profound unpopularity, but she was always the war network’s preferred candidate. I predicted in May that the US military industrial complex would push Harris through regardless. The popular contenders such as Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT) and President Trump were axed away with the most unfair means to clear the path for Harris to reclaim control of the US for the war network.
Harris’ career is also well planned ahead. The demented and corrupt Joe Biden, who is easy to manipulate and blackmail, is for some the perfect profile of a politician. Biden will be kept as a kind of political hologram for the next four, maybe eight years, while policy will be run by Harris and the corporate networks she represents. And then she will become President herself. It is reasonable to expect Harris to run the country until 2032 or 2036. The war network appreciates continuity.
The war network follows the old British imperial strategy to divide and conquer, and hence support political radicals – such as Islamists, or the radical left for that matter. The political affinity between both groups and even cooperation in conflicts such as Syria is no coincidence. The goal is to incite war and domestic conflict wherever there is an opportunity for it. In a radical departure from that policy, Trump had been halfway successful in his peace-making efforts the Middle East, and at least tried in Korea. In a second term he might have been successful in both theatres.
Korea will be now on its own and need to seek for new allies, or be forced to wait for another 30 years until another great disruptor like President Trump emerges to challenge the war network. In the Middle East and Eastern Europe the conflict with Russia will be reignited, bringing more instability and internal conflict to an existentially threatened European Union. This will increase the distance between America and its allies.
After the pipe dream of unipolarity is over for America, only a peacemaking role will give the country the chance to lead the world – as primus inter pares and through soft power. An America following British imperialistic dreams that provoke more conflict will soon lose even this role and vanish into oblivion.
The author is an international financial sector expert with work experience in 50 countries worldwide. His father was the head of the East German exile organization in the Christian Democratic Party of Germany until reunification.
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