Financials: Post-Trump Victory Notes
The changes that are going to occur in Washington over the next four years will be dramatically different than during Trump I.
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 18 min read
Fed Duration Trap Threatens Banks, SOMA
It’s time for the Fed to get smart on duration risk before circumstances create another money market crisis.Â
1,042 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 212 min read
Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF
Axos continues to rebound after the bear raid by Hindenburg Research. AX ranked 18th in the WGA Bank Top Index in Q3 2024 vs 98th for SOFI
718 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 245 min read
Update: CapitalOne Financial & PennyMac Financial Services
Of note, PFSI has been growing share in wholesale, a direct challenge to UWMC
337 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 115 min read
Earnings Setup: Consumer Lenders | ALLY AXP AX BCS COF SOFI SYF
The first comment to make is that consumer defaults are rising across the board. The only question we need to consider is the rate of change
537 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 710 min read
Goldman Sachs Fails Fed Stress Test
Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities
3,032 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 1110 min read
GSE Release? Really? Update: Ally Financial
You take the GSEs out of conservatorship, the big banks led by JPMorgan and U.S. Bancorp will own the conventional loan market
1,952 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 255 min read
WGA Releases Top 50 Bank Index | What's in Your ETF?
Not all banks or companies are the same and not all follow the herd.
1,132 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 214 min read
Does CapitalOne + Discover Financial = Shareholder Value?
Elizabeth Warren and progressives in Congress should support COF's purchase of Discover as a way to compete with monopoly JPMorgan
489 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 306 min read
Good, Bad & Ugly: AXP, SOFI & BAC
AXP is a premium stock that is best acquired when people think, incorrectly, that the world is ending.
855 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 298 min read
EVs Wane, Fintech Sputters & COF Dumps Commercial Mortgages
Now let’s take a look at how some members of the banking and fintech sector are doing in the first month of 2024.
806 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 21, 20237 min read
Update: Citigroup Fights for Credibility
Citigroup picked up almost 10 points of book value since the end of Q3 2023.
612 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 8, 20234 min read
Stocks, Interest Rates and Reverse RPs
Simply stated, with T-bills trading significantly above the yield on RRPs, there is no reason for MMFs to leave cash at the Fed
707 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 14, 20235 min read
Update: Banks & Fintechs
With inflation fears moderating, look for Buy Side managers to buy bank stocks – even if earnings remain constrained...
784 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 9, 20236 min read
Profile: Synchrony Financial
What can SYF tell us about the bleeding edge of unsecured consumer credit?
666 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 4, 20234 min read
Banks, Interest Rates & Fed Chairs
Imagine how President Joe Biden will react if Chair Powell needs to announce formal limits on access to US bank deposits.
2,416 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 4, 20237 min read
Update: Truist, Charles Schwab, U.S. Bancorp & PNC Financial
The largest banks continue to serve as a haven for refugees from crypto fraud schemes and the fintech swoon, but are not cheap
769 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 20, 20225 min read
Outliers: CapitalOne, Goldman Sachs & Citigroup
Like most nonbanks (and Goldman Sachs is predominantly a nonbank), volumes are falling and funding costs are rising.
567 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 13, 20224 min read
Update: Ally Financial (ALLY)
The 5-year CDS spreads for ALLY were trading 280bp over the swaps curve compared with 120bp for Citigroup (C) & 150bp for CapitalOne
476 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 7, 20225 min read
Top Five US Banks by Market Performance
In times of market volatility and suddenly ended delusions of easy money, the prudent path is to fly to quality.
473 views
Christopher Whalen
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