The Institutional Risk Analyst

Some of the smaller holders of MSRs may ask themselves if selling right now is not the best strategy over a 36-48 month horizon. 

If we consider the larger picture, we already have years of pent-up credit expenses awaiting realization, but add to the sauce Donald Trump.

Private equity portfolio companies are about 10 times as likely to go bankrupt as non-PE-owned companies.

Yes, net loss rates in percentage terms post default are back up to 2010 levels, but the dollar volume of net charge-offs remains very low.

Citi seems to be tracking the group now, whereas pre-COVID the stock significantly underperformed in terms of market beta. But performance?

The banking industry has segmented into a handful of above-average performers and JPM is the largest leader of these "winners"

It’s time for the Fed to get smart on duration risk before circumstances create another money market crisis. 

How is Goldman going to extricate itself from this profoundly unattractive business with AAPL without destroying Apple Card?

The Citi decision to exit mortgage servicing perhaps made sense in 2017, but today not so much.

Banks lose money every single day by holding onto a below market security from the 2019-2021 period.

Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities

The Fed bank stress tests are another sign of magical thinking in Washington.

Citigroup leads the pack with a net loss rate of 133 basis points (bp) that is almost five times the average for Peer Group 1 at 27 bp.

Based upon the three-month returns through the end of Q1 2024, NYCB ranked at the bottom of the 108 public banks in Peer Group 1.

We see higher credit costs, narrowing NIM and still rising funding costs squeezing the banking industry in Q1 2024...

FDIC Chairman Gruenberg ought to tell New York State to take over the rent controlled loans from Signature, NYCB and other lenders...

Not all banks or companies are the same and not all follow the herd.

Sad to say, the business at NYCB is doing better than you'd think reading the bank's absurd disclosure.

If Fraser cannot articulate a coherent reason to keep the business together, a breakup may be the most sensible strategy.

Look for falling rates sooner rather than later as the Fed and other agencies prepare to resolve more bank failures in 2024.