PacWest Bancorp & Fed Hawks
To survive long-term, both WAL and PACW need to get that beta back down below 2 and closer to 1, but the hawks on the FOMC may not cooperate
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Fintech
Christopher Whalen
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 17
- 4 min
Funding & Credit: Q1 2023 Bank Earnings Takeaways
The issue is not whether your bank is getting smaller, but whether credit expenses are being managed as funding costs inevitably rise.
1,104 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 12
- 8 min
Q1 2023 Bank Earnings: Lower for Longer | JPM USB C WFC BAC
Given that the US Treasury is paying 4% for 90-day T-bills, you can see how far banks have to go to become competitive on rates
1,019 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 9
- 12 min
Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury
The Fed by definition cannot make a profit and is always an expense to the Treasury, thus operating losses are a expense to the taxpayer
3,917 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 23
- 7 min
The Return of Credit Risk
Fact is, Dr. Brainard has primary culpability in the growing economic pain being felt around the country.
2,325 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 30
- 7 min
Why the FT is Wrong About Ally Financial
Ally is still more finance company than bank and really has no core deposit base worthy of the name.
899 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 23
- 6 min
Update: Bank of America
We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks
515 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 4
- 7 min
Update: Truist, Charles Schwab, U.S. Bancorp & PNC Financial
The largest banks continue to serve as a haven for refugees from crypto fraud schemes and the fintech swoon, but are not cheap
664 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 20, 2022
- 5 min
Outliers: CapitalOne, Goldman Sachs & Citigroup
Like most nonbanks (and Goldman Sachs is predominantly a nonbank), volumes are falling and funding costs are rising.
555 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 12, 2022
- 7 min
Update: U.S. Bank vs. Bank OZK; Q3 2022 Earnings Setup
How will this above-peer performer from Little Rock do in a Fed-induced recession that rivals 2008 in terms of market losses?
659 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 2, 2022
- 10 min
Large Banks: QT Winners & Losers
A number of readers have asked us to talk about the winners and losers among large banks in the current interest rate environment.
801 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 8, 2022
- 5 min
Update: The Bull Case for US Financials
Investors who were buying large caps at 2x book value a year ago are now running away from bank stocks just as fundamentals improve...
509 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 15, 2022
- 9 min
Universal Banks | Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, Raymond James & Stifel
Total noncore funding at GS was over $700 billion at the end of Q1 2022 vs $321 billion for MS.
453 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 13, 2022
- 4 min
Update: Ally Financial (ALLY)
The 5-year CDS spreads for ALLY were trading 280bp over the swaps curve compared with 120bp for Citigroup (C) & 150bp for CapitalOne
448 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 15, 2022
- 5 min
Update: US Banks Post-QE
Even as the FOMC raises interest rates, we caution our readers to be prepared for disappointment from banks near term
404 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 2, 2022
- 7 min
Update: Upstart Holdings & Cross River Bank
If investors and partner banks don’t want to buy UPST loans at current market rates, then the game is over in an originate to sell model
677 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 29, 2022
- 2 min
The IRA Bank Book | Outlook Q2 2022
The sharp rise in bank stocks in 2021 coincided with a surge in operating income due to COVID. Now we reverse that trend in 2022...
397 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 20, 2022
- 5 min
Ukraine & the Return of Credit Risk
Just imagine how global markets will react when Putin deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Eastern Ukraine to avoid a military defeat
538 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 11, 2022
- 5 min
Weak Bank Earnings & Surging Interest Rates = Lower Valuations
Will Fed Chairman Jay Powell fold in terms of further rate hikes if the S&P 500 falls 1,000 points in a day?
491 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 28, 2022
- 6 min
Top Five US Banks: USB, JPM, WFC, C & BAC
Valuations for the top five US banks are up slightly as Q1 2022 comes to an end
360 views
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