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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Bayview Acquires Guild Mortgage
Truth is, it’s hard to see the leadership of either RITM or UWMC combining with another entity, but the cost pressures in the industry today are driving radical change.
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Jun 194 min read


Housing Finance Outlook | Q3 2025
We expect to see continued consolidation in the world of residential mortgage finance in coming months. The sad fact is that many less competitive businesses in mortgage finance have been waiting for the FOMC to ride to the rescue with lower interest rates. If rate cuts do not materialize in 2025, however, then many of these businesses may not survive.
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May 279 min read


Housing Finance in the Age of Volatility: GHLD, UWMC, RKT, COOP, JPM
While GHLD provides a lot of good information about their business, the investor disclosure provided by UWMC is a bad joke, especially when you remember that UWMC is the largest nonbank lender in the US. The Q1 2025 press release is just 9 pages in length and lacks some of the most basic financial information available from UWMC’s peers.
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May 910 min read


Rocket + Redfin + Mr. Cooper = First in Class
COOP and RKT, plus RDFN, creates an integrated business of realty, lending, servicing and asset management that is impressive
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Apr 15 min read


Kamikaze GSE Release? Oh Yeah...
Yes, that's right, we are going to downgrade $8 trillion in GSE MBS and hundreds of billions in corporate debt.
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Dec 10, 202415 min read


Update: Our Top Five Ideas
How will the sudden shift in Fed policy impact financials? Are we headed for a recession?
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Sep 24, 20246 min read


GSE Release Under Trump? Post-Rate Cut Margin Calls??
Why should a private Fannie Mae be a 20% risk weight under Basel III, but PFSI or Mr. Cooper (COOP) are 100%?
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Sep 22, 20248 min read


Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF
Axos continues to rebound after the bear raid by Hindenburg Research. AX ranked 18th in the WGA Bank Top Index in Q3 2024 vs 98th for SOFI
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Sep 2, 202412 min read


Market Volatility and Loan Defaults
The market tantrum which began on Friday was largely over by the market close on the following Tuesday.
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Aug 8, 20246 min read


Update: CapitalOne Financial & PennyMac Financial Services
Of note, PFSI has been growing share in wholesale, a direct challenge to UWMC
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Jul 25, 20245 min read


Freddie Mac Buying HELOCs? Really Meredith? | UWMC & Disappearing MSRs
We think Whitney’s comments about a surge in new lending from Freddie Mac buying home equity loans are poorly considered
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May 10, 202410 min read


Portfolio Update & Mortgage Survivors
The survivors in mortgage finance optimize operations around purchasing loans from brokers/ correspondents, and direct to consumer (DTC)
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May 8, 20246 min read


Vanguard & Black Rock Control JP Morgan? | PNC & United Wholesale Mortgage
BK and Vanguard are above the 4.9% legal limit on ownership of voting shares of a bank. This fact gives the FDIC et al the power...
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Apr 4, 20247 min read


Update: UWMC & Rocket; Rate Cut Dreams Fade
Industry leaders believe that the FHFA wants the GSEs to offer issuers "repurchase insurance" to the tune of 25bps per loan.
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Feb 29, 20247 min read


Update: PennyMac Financial Services
If we are marking balance sheet assets to actual market in the age of deflation, what of the heavily modeled world of servicing assets?
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Nov 1, 20236 min read


Mortgage Lenders Face Return of a Purchase Market
The “winners” in the mortgage sector will be those larger players with equally large servicing books that can access bank funding
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Jul 8, 20237 min read


RKT Sinks, UWMC Wobbles, RITM Treads Water & Goldman Doubles Down
GS is a securities dealer first and foremost and has no comparative advantage as a bank.
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Mar 2, 20236 min read


Interview: Mike Patterson, Freedom Mortgage
In this issue of The Institutional Risk Analyst, we speak to Mike Patterson, COO of Freedom Mortgage.
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Jan 19, 20239 min read


The Year That Was: 2022
Many in the Buy Side chorus are looking forward to lower interest rates, but we are concerned that next year could really be about solvency
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Dec 16, 20226 min read


Record Losses for Mortgage Banks Presage Tough Year Ahead
Is 2023 the year of the Return of the Distressed Loan Trade?
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Nov 19, 20221 min read
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