Jackson Hole and the Volatility of Credit
Central bankers cannot quantify any of the key benchmarks of current monetary policy beyond metaphors about stars and clouds
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Fintech
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 9
- 12 min
Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury
The Fed by definition cannot make a profit and is always an expense to the Treasury, thus operating losses are a expense to the taxpayer
4,025 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 16
- 5 min
Will We See Double-Digit Residential Mortgage Rates -- Again?
As the FOMC moves short-term rates towards 6%, we expect to take another run at double-digit rates for prime residential mortgage loans.
1,394 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 28, 2022
- 6 min
Is JPMorgan Chase Insolvent?
The US banking industry has been rendered insolvent by the Federal Open Market Committee
7,648 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 24, 2022
- 3 min
AOCI: The Winter of Quantitative Easing
Little attention is being paid to the collateral damage being done by the FOMC to the debt capital markets
765 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 24, 2022
- 6 min
Questions for Chairman Powell
QE has created a gigantic interest rate mismatch across markets for banks, non-banks and other financial intermediaries including the GSEs
500 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 21, 2022
- 5 min
Should the FOMC Pause Rate Hikes After July?
The real message to the FOMC is this: hike another 75bp in July and then let the Fed funds target sit for a few meetings...
596 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 8, 2022
- 8 min
Chairman Powell's Duration Problem
Chairman Powell’s demeanor during the press conference when he spoke with Mike McKee suggests a man who knows he has a problem.
917 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 4, 2022
- 5 min
Interest Rates, Credit and MSRs
Even as Powell signals willingness to take interest rate targets higher, he has put off a decision on the Fed's balance sheet until June.
481 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 11, 2022
- 5 min
Weak Bank Earnings & Surging Interest Rates = Lower Valuations
Will Fed Chairman Jay Powell fold in terms of further rate hikes if the S&P 500 falls 1,000 points in a day?
491 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 15, 2022
- 5 min
QE, Risk Premia and Option Adjusted Spreads
There a brisk debate ongoing in the fixed income markets over how much the Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates and when
857 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 21, 2022
- 5 min
Powell, Yellen, Bernanke and Post-QE Deflation
The Powell FOMC has lost all credibility when it comes to financial markets or managing inflation and independence from the US Treasury
780 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 15, 2021
- 4 min
As the Fed Ends QE, Stocks and Crypto Will Retreat
And in the meantime, we view the end of QE as a net negative for global stocks as well as crypto. Everything is correlated in a crowd.
1,141 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 25, 2021
- 6 min
Three Questions for Chairman Powell
Look for the FOMC to act early and go big in terms of forward repurchase agreements at the first sign of liquidity stress.
664 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 12, 2021
- 3 min
Q2 2021 Bank Earnings Setup | GS, JPM, FRC | NIM Lower for Longer
Cheap liquidity c/o the FOMC does little for bank earnings when asset returns are also falling
603 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 6, 2021
- 4 min
Brian Barnier: Are Central Bankers Asking the Right Questions about “Inflation?”
The Fed's 2% inflation target needs to be replaced in a specific way
801 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 27, 2021
- 5 min
Chairman Powell: Fine Tuning and Price Stability
Each burst of liquidity provided by the FOMC in response to a major externality creates the conditions for the next financial crisis
898 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 8, 2021
- 6 min
As the Economy Surges, Progressive Agenda Fades
The mere fact of vaccination, effective or no, is probably worth several points of GDP simply by improving the national mood.
551 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 25, 2021
- 7 min
Update: Q1 2021 Bank Earnings
US banks are running at income levels that are less than half of a year ago...
310 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 12, 2021
- 8 min
The Bank Book Q1 2021: Loss Reserve Releases to Boost Earnings
We anticipate significant loan loss reserve releases back into income in Q1 2021 and thereafter as banks adjust their loan loss provisions
439 views
Christopher Whalen
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