The Institutional Risk Analyst

Grand Lake Stream | The discussions this weekend at Leen’s Lodge in Maine were wide ranging and, as always, of great interest. Will Argentina’s economy implode? (A: Sadly yes). Argentina is trading at a discount to Uruguay. Will the commercial real estate market in the UK likewise collapse as the train wreck called Brexit unfolds? (A: In progress). When will the yield curve invert? (A: Soon). Indian Township, Maine One of the most interesting points of debate was the impac

New York | With the global punditry assembled in Davos this week, the topic of the dollar seems to have bubbled to the surface again. Down more that 10% from the December 2016 peak, the greenback has started to sag at just the time when Treasury deficits are climbing and the Fed is paring back its purchases of US government debt and agency mortgage bonds, as shown in Chart 1 below. With the 10-year Treasury back over 2.6% yield, gravity seems to have been restored to the gl