The Institutional Risk Analyst

New York | Last week in The Institutional Risk Analyst, we gave you a taste of today’s interview with author and consultant Jim Rickards to talk about his latest book, “Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos.” As usual, Jim has a commanding view of the ebb and flow of the global political economy. His first chapter in which he describes the fateful role of former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in choosing the current monetary policy mix sets the sta

New York | Once again it is time for earnings in the world of financials. Go back and compare the Sell Side view of financials at the end of Q2 ’18 with the narrative today. What you see is that the group basically has gone sideways for the past year. Peak gains for sector leaders like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) were about 5%, but both are down more than that amount since the great slide began in earnest in December. We can blame the sudden downdraft on va

New York – Happy Memorial Day. "Let us have peace." Grant's Tomb The Mortgage Bankers Association Secondary Expo is always one of the more important events of the year for the housing finance industry and 2018 was no exception. MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni delivered the expected bad news that the industry slipped into net loss on new loan origination for the first time since 2014. Soaring regulatory costs and shrinking spreads are the culprits. But the industry remai

New York | None other than Warren Buffett of investment fame started off the week complaining to Becky Quick of CNBC that there’s not enough big things to buy. Railroads? Airlines? Not even Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) suffices to satiate Mr. Buffett's hunger for assets. With over $120 billion in cash burning its way through his trouser pocket, the best that the Sage of Omaha can come up with is buying one of the most overvalued stocks of all, namely the computer cult led by

"Al", retired Wells Fargo stagecoach pony New York | Wall Street more than bounced last week as the secular shortage of stocks quickly snapped investors out of their collective funk. But one once stellar performer in the large cap financials, Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC), hung back from the surging crowd. In years gone by, Wells was the quiet exemplar of operating efficiency among large banks, but no more. Today WFC is the bank that everyone loves to hate. But while WFC may

“The great wheel of circulation is altogether different from the goods which are circulated by means of it. The revenue of the society consists altogether in those goods, and not in the wheel which circulates them” Adam Smith, 1811 Southport | This week in The Institutional Risk Analyst, we return to one of our favorite topics – namely credit spreads – as we consider the most recent statement from the Federal Open Market Committee. Fed Chair Janet Yellen made a presentation

New York | Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s defense of the benefits of regulation last week in Jackson Hole probably killed her chances for reappointment, but the more pressing reason to see Yellen return to the private sector is visible in the US real estate market. Chair Yellen and her colleagues have created large bubbles in many assets classes from residential homes to commercial real estate to construction lending. As in the 2000s, this latest bout of asset price inflation wil