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June 3, 2026 | This week Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO David Solomon stated the obvious when he noted that there is “more greed than there is fear” in comments to the Economic Club of New York. Solomon’s observation came as Goldman projects that the war with Iran will cause “a modest drag” on U.S. and global GDP while significantly elevating inflation and delaying interest rate cuts. In fact, we expect the war with Iran to result in higher interest rates, higher inflation and rationing of key petroleum byproducts in coming months, something that nobody in the Trump Administration seems willing to discuss. If Washington was populated by serious people, the federal government would already be making plans for rationing key refined products. The prospect of such developments is unlikely to change the manic mood on Wall Street, however. Bankers have declared 2026 to be the year of initial public offerings regardless of whether the Fed cuts or raises the target for federal funds or inflation goes to double digits. On Wall Street, it no longer matters. As one reader named Ira notes: "There are four ways to deal with debt loads----repudiate, depreciate, devalue, or a capital levy------where do we go from here?" The Treasury’s issuance of short-term debt is serving as a rate cut of sorts, forcing down the level of duration in the market even as the amount of total indebtedness grows. Shortening the duration of Treasury debt is a sort of fiscal QE. No surprise then that a surreal atmosphere prevails in Washington as the federal debt now totals $40 trillion, yet the growth of private debt is equally impressive. The situation on Washington and Wall Street, however, is fundamentally different than a century ago. Rather than an absence of fear, the late 1920s were characterized by overconfidence and an "asset bubble" driven by greed, which ultimately culminated in the devastating Wall Street Crash of October 1929. Today the mechanisms of government provide stability to the system, stability that allows people to take even greater risks with less fear. Like Herbert Hoover in the late 1920s, Donald Trump in 2024 was elected to preserve the existing order even as the ground was shifting underfoot. While the financial markets climb ever higher, the level of dysfunction in Washington reminds close observers of President Trump’s first term in office. The lack of focus and attention to details in Washington, however, are less troubling than the lack of fear and especially uncertainty in the financial markets. Banksters are certain that AI-related technology firms will go to the moon, but their lack of fear and loathing is far more terrifying. Morningstar initiated coverage on SpaceX with a fair-value estimate of $780 billion. This is less than half of the $1.8 trillion target valuation for the company's planned initial IPO, just one caution about the valuation of SpaceX. Of note, SpaceX disclosed this week that it "may issue a significant amount of equity in connection with future transactions," signaling that the company expects additional acquisitions, investments, or other major deals after it reaches public markets. This may include the purchase of Elon Musk's ailing auto company Tesla Motors (TSLA). Bitcoin crypto tokens seem to have fallen into yet another price collapse. All around there are signs of a reset building. As we noted in the latest edition of The IRA Bank Book Q2 2026, “higher credit risk is becoming more broad-based,” note our friends at MIAC. “Rising delinquencies are most apparent in FHA, but the deterioration has touched all mortgage sectors.” Today debt spreads are as tight as ever before, usually a positive indication about the health of the metabolism of the US economy. In this case, however, we view the tightness of debt spreads as an indication of inflation, whereby investors are chasing investment assets in a way that is breathtaking in its presumption and lack of fear. In our work in the mortgage sector, for example, the list of institutional investors looking to put capital to work buying and flipping distressed residential mortgages is scary. Why are investors who usually gallop the globe looking for multi-billion dollar opportunities now focused on defaulted HECM reverse mortgages being auctioned this summer by HUD? Because despite the piles of private debt in the financial markets, government guaranteed assets remain scarce. William H. Janeway, special limited partner of Warburg Pincus, distinguished affiliated professor in economics at the University of Cambridge, and author of Doing Capitalism in the Innovation Economy (Cambridge University Press, 2018) commented in Project Syndicate this week: “One highly relevant place to examine how the world really works right now is the extraordinary boom in AI-related investment to fund construction of the physical infrastructure needed to enable the training and deployment of large language models. These investments are motivated by problematic long-term expectations with respect to commercially useful and financially rewarding applications of generative AI. The question from the world of financial economics is whether, in aggregate and with respect to specific players, the cash flows generated by these applications will be sufficient—and sufficiently timely — to validate the investments now committed. In turn, funding from the operational cash flows of the established, monopolistic tech giants has been giving way to rapidly growing issuance of debt securities. The entire phenomenon cries out for analysis in the spirit of Minsky’s Keynes.” Bill Janeway, who we interviewed previously in The IRA (“The Interview: William Janeway on Capitalism and the Innovation Economy”) reminds us that America today is deep into the third phase of classical finance, the Ponzi phase, when valuations are purely a matter of manipulation and hubris. He recalls that the “Minsky Moment” arrived two years before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, when companies began to pay their debts by issuing more debt. Sound familiar? Like the standard practice today in private equity and debt. Again, Janeway: “Minsky had defined a process, not a moment, and the stage that it had reached in 2006 could have been inferred from the fact that banks were funding their customers with “PIK-Toggle” debt instruments. This meant that debtors could service their obligations by issuing more debt (PIK stands for “payment in kind”), and that the decision to do so was entirely within the borrower’s discretion (the “Toggle”). There could have been no clearer evidence that the system was in the Ponzi phase. Moreover, markets were so confident in the illusion they had created that one could purchase a three-year put on the S&P 500 (a bet that the index would fall) for only 2% per year.” We can understand why many economists believe that the FOMC will be forced to raise interest rates at the next meeting or by the latest July, yet we’d argue that the situation in the financial markets now exceeds the ability of mere policy to control inflation. After 16 years of QE from the Fed, the only way that we can tame the dragon of inflation and affordability in the US is for a maxi asset price reset in credit a la the 1970s or even the 1930s. In the event, when the surprise event does occur, the FOMC will be forced to drop interest rates dramatically to get ahead of a deflationary tidal wave. Recent Posts of Interest Keynes, Minsky, and the Economics of Uncertainty https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/keynes-minsky-economic-uncertainty-investment-and-bubbles-by-william-h-janeway-2026-05 Inflation and a Virtuous Barbell https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira848 The Institutional Risk Analyst (ISSN 2692-1812) is published by Whalen Global Advisors LLC and is provided for general informational purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes or financial advice. By making use of The Institutional Risk Analyst web site and content, the recipient thereof acknowledges and agrees to our copyright and the matters set forth below in this disclaimer. Whalen Global Advisors LLC makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) regarding the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information in The Institutional Risk Analyst. Information contained herein is obtained from public and private sources deemed reliable. Any analysis or statements contained in The Institutional Risk Analyst are preliminary and are not intended to be complete, and such information is qualified in its entirety. Any opinions or estimates contained in The Institutional Risk Analyst represent the judgment of Whalen Global Advisors LLC at this time, and is subject to change without notice. The Institutional Risk Analyst is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or instruments named or described herein. The Institutional Risk Analyst is not intended to provide, and must not be relied on for, accounting, legal, regulatory, tax, business, financial or related advice or investment recommendations. Whalen Global Advisors LLC is not acting as fiduciary or advisor with respect to the information contained herein. You must consult with your own advisors as to the legal, regulatory, tax, business, financial, investment and other aspects of the subjects addressed in The Institutional Risk Analyst. Interested parties are advised to contact Whalen Global Advisors LLC for more information. Recent Posts of Interest Gretchen Morgenson: She paid an insurance company $99,000 to generate retirement income for life. Then it collapsed The Institutional Risk Analyst (ISSN 2692-1812) is published by Whalen Global Advisors LLC and is provided for general informational purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes or financial advice. By making use of The Institutional Risk Analyst web site and content, the recipient thereof acknowledges and agrees to our copyright and the matters set forth below in this disclaimer. Whalen Global Advisors LLC makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) regarding the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information in The Institutional Risk Analyst. Information contained herein is obtained from public and private sources deemed reliable. Any analysis or statements contained in The Institutional Risk Analyst are preliminary and are not intended to be complete, and such information is qualified in its entirety. Any opinions or estimates contained in The Institutional Risk Analyst represent the judgment of Whalen Global Advisors LLC at this time, and is subject to change without notice. The Institutional Risk Analyst is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or instruments named or described herein. The Institutional Risk Analyst is not intended to provide, and must not be relied on for, accounting, legal, regulatory, tax, business, financial or related advice or investment recommendations. Whalen Global Advisors LLC is not acting as fiduciary or advisor with respect to the information contained herein. You must consult with your own advisors as to the legal, regulatory, tax, business, financial, investment and other aspects of the subjects addressed in The Institutional Risk Analyst. Interested parties are advised to contact Whalen Global Advisors LLC for more information.

June 1, 2026 | Whalen Global Advisors LLC has released The IRA Bank Book Q2 2026, which delivers a detailed look at the operating realities and credit risks building beneath the surface of the US financial system. The 30+ page deep-dive into the US banking sector updates investors on the performance of financials YTD in 2026 after the remarkable performance in 2025. The IRA Bank Book Q2 2026 Source: Yahoo Finance (05/29/26) “Financial stocks are the only sector of the equity market with positive performance after AI/technology,” notes WGA Chairman Christopher Whalen. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon stated that the bank's trading (markets) revenue could rise by at least 11% in the second quarter, which would make it the second-best quarter ever for that business. Additionally, Dimon projected that JPM's investment banking fees would increase by about 10%. “Credit indicators continue to trend lower even as exposure to areas such a private credit and nonbank financial institutions continue to grow by double-digit rates," notes Whalen. "The rising exposure of US banks to non-depository financial institutions, including private credit funds, credit managers, and private equity sponsors that now sit at the center of the shadow banking system, suggests that bank stocks may be headed for a reset, especially if the FOMC tightens policy later this year.” The new report includes WGA’s proprietary estimate of the contingent credit exposure of U.S. banks to these NDFIs, a number that may surprise investors who assume bank balance sheets are insulated from the private credit boom. The IRA Bank Book for Q2 2026 also features a discussion of the WGA Bank Top 50 test group as well as extensive tables and charts showing the performance of loans, fixed income assets and other indicia of bank financial performance. Source: FDIC/WGA LLC “One reason why bank credit statistics look so good is that the markets remain awash in liquidity, forcing asset prices up and default rates down,” notes Whalen. "We estimate that there are now $3 trillion in unused loan commitments by banks to non-depository financial institutions." He adds: “The period of Fed tightening from 2021 through the end of last year did not even begin to deflate the asset bubble in US markets fueled by quantitative easing (QE) by the Fed. Many of the indicators of the cost of default are actually falling as Q2 2026 draws to a close, evidence that there remains a huge amount of inflation in financial assets and markets after 15 years of massive securities purchases by the Federal Reserve Board.” The IRA Bank Book Q2 2026 is available for purchase in The IRA online store and to subscribers to The IRA Premium Service which provides ongoing analysis of bank risk, credit markets, and financial system stress points. Subscribers please login to download your copy of The IRA Bank Book for Q2 2026 report below.

This week in “The Wrap,” we feature the top events in Washington and on Wall Street over the past week. And please do watch “The Wrap with Chris Whalen” on The Julia LaRoche Show every Saturday on YouTube to catch our discussion of what’s hot and what’s not in the world of finance and investing. May 29, 2026 | As the month of May draws to a momentous close, the US-Israeli war with Iran seems no closer to a conclusion than it was a month ago, this despite the almost daily optimistic statements about “a deal” from the Trump Administration. "US and Iran 'very close' to deal but 'not there yet', VP JD Vance said this week. The chief result of President Donald Trump’s Iranian adventure seems to be ever higher inflation and rising LT interest rates. That said, WTI trended down again this week, hitting around $89/barrel (was ~ $97/barrel last week). Brent was down to about $94/barrel ($103 last week). Gasoline prices also fell to $4.39 vs $4.52 last week, with diesel down to $5.52 vs $5.63 last week. But technology stocks are at all-time highs led by the likes of Micron Technology (MU), which is up over 800% in the past year. Are the US equity markets approaching an inevitable reset? Bank Income Up, Stocks Sideways The FDIC released the aggregate Q1 data from the US banking industry this week. Income was up again, but stock prices for financials are flat to down with a few exceptions. We’ll be publishing our quarterly update on the industry and specific thoughts on financials on Monday. One basic issue with all financials, banks or nonbanks, is that the upward move in LT interest rates has left many issuers underwater on their fixed income investments. Likewise, the preferred and debt securities issued by financials are trading at a discount. Are banks good value at these levels? We’ll tell our Premium Service subscribers next week. With the 10-year Treasury trading at 4.45% yield as of Thursday’s close, banks and investors with large positions in low-coupon securities are facing rising unrealized losses on their securities portfolios, but rising delinquency in private credit is also a concern. “Fueled by ultra-low interest rates, post-2008 banking regulations, and yield-hungry investors, private credit became one of the most powerful forces in global finance,” writes Mayra Rodriguez Valladares. “Now the environment that created it has reversed: rates are elevated, refinancing has become harder, and the first real signs of stress are emerging across the asset class.” Rodriquez notes that Fitch Ratings reports that the U.S. private credit default rate hit a record high of 6.0% in April, 10x the default rate for US banks. The credit rating agency also estimated that private-credit-backed corporate borrowers experienced a subprime 9.2% default rate in 2025. Despite such concerns, our WGA Bank Top 50 group is currently led by The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) and Bread Financial Holdings (BFH), not exactly a who’s who of usual leaders in the group. TD has almost doubled in the past year largely due to its recovery from 2024 regulatory penalties (including a U.S. asset cap), combined with record revenue in Canadian retail banking. TD has done a much better job recovering from regulatory sanctions than say Wells Fargo (WFC). The End of Policy? Will an eventual cut in ST interest rates by the FOMC will also result in lower LT yields? Our simple answer is no unless and until the Fed restarts quantitative easing (QE). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent heavily criticized (QE), calling the Federal Reserve an "engine of inequality,” but the lack of QE is gradually forcing LT interest rates higher as the federal debt grows. We may be closer to QE 5 that Bessent knows. To review: QE1 (Nov 2008 – Mar 2010): Response to the global financial crisis, the Bernanke Fed purchased $1.75 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS), agency debt, and Treasury notes. QE2 (Nov 2010 – Jun 2011): Aimed at “supporting a struggling recovery,” the Bernanke Fed purchased an additional $600 billion in longer-term Treasury securities. “Operation Twist” redux c/o Governor Janet Yellen. QE3 (Sep 2012 – Oct 2014): Open-ended asset purchasing program (nicknamed "QE-Infinity") under the Bernanke Fed that eventually peaked at $85 billion per month in combined MBS and Treasury purchases. QE4 (Mar 2020 – Mar 2022): Initiated to counter the "economic fallout" of the COVID-19 pandemic. Open-ended program expanded the Fed’s balance sheet to a peak of nearly $9 trillion through massive purchases of Treasuries and MBS causing home prices to soar. Notice that the US housing market was massively subsidized by the Fed going back to 2008, one reason that home prices surged until the end of 2024. In relative terms today, housing is in a depression. There may be a short rally in LT interest rates as and when the Fed inevitably cuts the target for federal funds, but we have a hard time envisioning a catalyst for a sustained rally in Treasury notes and bonds, much less MBS. The massive weight of duration of MBS that is being shifted from the Fed back to the private markets is pushing mortgage rates higher. More, the impact of the war with Iran may push up inflation up towards double digits by year-end, regardless of whether a deal happens sooner than later. Higher Rates, Lower Asset Values As a result of the war with Iran, “Trump’s poll numbers on the economy — by far the top issue this year — have collapsed,” PunchBowl reports. “Some recent polls had him under 30%, an absolute disaster for Republicans” in the midterm elections. Consumer confidence hit record lows this week as well. Americans are cutting back on spending and consuming savings as they struggle with rising gas prices and interest rates, even as Wall Street notches record highs. The number of Americans struggling to put food on the table is growing. But even more worrisome is the impact of rising inflation and interest rates on prices for stocks and other assets. Could the net result of two years of manic behavior by investors chasing returns in everything AI be a maxi reset in the financial markets? A decade of artificially low interest rates – and the expectation of more of the same in the future – drives up asset prices. As low interest rates permeated the economy over the past decade and more, MTS Observer noted recently, “near-term cash flows are discounted by a lower cost of capital, leading to higher valuations across all asset classes.” When the expectation of interest rates lower for longer evaporates, however, suddenly the rationale for elevated assets prices disappears. As interest rates rise, the true condition of bank loan portfolio is becoming evident and is tied to valuations. Or to use the language of commercial property, a higher cap rate implies a lower valuation for the asset. Gold, Silver Trend Lower In the past five days, gold lost several points in a week of choppy trading. Gold has trended down, falling by roughly 3% to 4% to below $4,400 per ounce. This marked multi-month lows driven by a stronger U.S. dollar, stalled U.S.–Iran peace talks, and rising Treasury yields. Over the last five trading days, silver prices experienced a volatile pullback, sliding from roughly $76.50 per ounce down to the $72.00-$74.00 range. Prices softened reportedly due to short-term profit-taking, pushing the metal to four-week lows. ZKB Silver ETF (0VR6.L) is still the best performing stock in the WGA Precious Metals Top 25, but we’re not allowed to buy it at Merrill Lynch. Go figure. Recent Posts Inflation and a Virtuous Barbell https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira848 Who is the Next Countrywide Financial? PennyMac, Rocket & UWMC https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira843 The Institutional Risk Analyst (ISSN 2692-1812) is published by Whalen Global Advisors LLC and is provided for general informational purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes or financial advice. By making use of The Institutional Risk Analyst web site and content, the recipient thereof acknowledges and agrees to our copyright and the matters set forth below in this disclaimer. Whalen Global Advisors LLC makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) regarding the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information in The Institutional Risk Analyst. Information contained herein is obtained from public and private sources deemed reliable. Any analysis or statements contained in The Institutional Risk Analyst are preliminary and are not intended to be complete, and such information is qualified in its entirety. Any opinions or estimates contained in The Institutional Risk Analyst represent the judgment of Whalen Global Advisors LLC at this time, and is subject to change without notice. The Institutional Risk Analyst is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or instruments named or described herein. The Institutional Risk Analyst is not intended to provide, and must not be relied on for, accounting, legal, regulatory, tax, business, financial or related advice or investment recommendations. Whalen Global Advisors LLC is not acting as fiduciary or advisor with respect to the information contained herein. You must consult with your own advisors as to the legal, regulatory, tax, business, financial, investment and other aspects of the subjects addressed in The Institutional Risk Analyst. Interested parties are advised to contact Whalen Global Advisors LLC for more information.

May 26, 2026 | For a while now, we have been alluding to a “barbell” strategy for our investments at WGA LLC that is anchored in precious metals and real estate, in terms of value protection, but balanced with an aggressive strategy toward fiat gains on the stock market and income from high quality fixed income exposure in REIT common and preferred, and unsecured debt. In a system where tax avoidance is a national aspiration, the currency must inflate continuously and at varying rates to accommodate the Treasury’s cash needs. Last week in "The Wrap," we noted that real gasoline prices, adjusted for inflation, are actually quite low. We also predicted that inflation could touch double digit rates later this year as a result of the US-Israeli war with Iran, but the big driver of inflation remains the federal debt. As we wrote in “Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream” in 2025: “Over the decades, the political will to collect taxes in the United States has failed, often because conservative politicians think (wrongly) that depriving the Treasury of revenue will somehow slow federal spending. If Democrats tend to be too enamored of demand-side policies and debt, Republicans tend to have a nineteenth-century view of money and markets that is entirely antiquated. What the Civil War proved and the New Deal and subsequent decades confirmed, a legal tender fiat currency and Treasury emissions are interchangeable. But when American individuals or corporations avoid taxes, they are essentially forcing the Treasury to borrow.” Our missive last week (“What Does a Smaller Fed Balance Sheet Mean for Inflation & Interest Rates?”) caused more than a few questions from our readers. The key factor to consider when the Fed is buying Treasury securities (or MBS during the Yellen and Powell FOMC is the duration represented by these assets. Why? When the Fed buys securities, the duration “disappears” inside the magical confines of the system open market account (SOMA). As a result, there is less duration available for private investors. If interest rates are stable, lower duration means asset prices rise and market yields fall as investors compete for a scarce asset. But what happens if interest rates fall dramatically as the Fed buys securities and new issuance surges? Think of duration as the average time in years that it takes to return principal and interest to an investor, thus higher levels of aggregate market duration generally means lower prices for securities. During COVID, the FOMC pushed interest rates down to zero, unleashing a tidal wave of new securities issuance with very low coupons and very long durations. In 2021, the Fed began to raise ST interest rates, causing new bond issuance to slow and coupons to rise. The change left the Fed and many banks insolvent. The Fed allowed its balance sheet to shrink for barely four years until December 2025, forcing banking system deposits to contract. The massive Treasury deficit as well as the net-sales of MBS by the Fed helped to push LT interest rates higher in 2026 even as duration measured in years was falling. But the fact remains that the average GNMA MBS coupon rate is just over 4% today Source: Ginnie Mae Market duration measured by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index dipped as low as 3.63 years in March 2009 and rose to as high as 6.69 years at the end of 2021. Although immediately following COVID the Fed was buying $7 trillion in securities and sequestering this duration inside the SOMA, the overall duration of the US bond market actually rose. Trillions in new private securities were issued with very low coupons as illustrated by the chart above showing $2 trillion in GNMA MBS by coupon rate. Once the Fed raised interest rates in 2021, however, duration fell dramatically, causing bond prices to rise sharply. More recently, the relentless increase in outstanding public debt and the fact that the Fed is no longer buying MBS has forced LT yields higher during 2026. As a result of changes in the bond market, Weitz Investments notes, roughly half of the U.S. bond market does not appear in the Bloomberg Agg Index today. Lower coupons and higher duration means a more volatile bond market. Below we discuss some of our investments over the past five years, what has worked and what had not, and our view of the future The results are often surprising but also show that our basic thesis about balancing value investing with opportunistic speculation in fiat assets such as stocks and fixed income has kept us ahead of the curve and the crowd. In a system that continuously devalues its currency, the prudent investor is forced into an active strategy to defend value. We start the discussion with a foundation in financials, government debt and credit, enhanced with our later focus in nonbank finance and residential mortgages, and most recently in vehicles for gaining exposure to precious metals and commodity producers more generally. As the excesses of the progressive state that has existed since the New Deal and WWII become more pronounced, Americans are forced to adopt more sophisticated methods to defend real value – like hoarding high value goods for resale in the future. Years ago, we worked as a consultant in Mexico for the US Export Import Bank and a number of private companies. We witnessed first hand how the average individual hedged against the double digit inflation that was commonplace at that time south of the border. Cargo planes fitted out with extra wide doors loaded up on new home appliances in Laredo, TX, then flew to airports in Mexico where the appliances were sold for cash right on the tarmac. The buyers would store the new appliances for a year or more, then sell the item for cash at a much appreciated value. The mentality of inflation was ingrained in Mexico 50 years ago and is becoming ingrained in the US today. The Virtuous Barbell

This week in “The Wrap,” we feature the top events in Washington and on Wall Street over the past week. And do watch “The Wrap with Chris Whalen” on The Julia LaRoche Show every Saturday on YouTube to catch our discussion of what’s hot and what’s not in the world of finance and investing. May 22, 2026 | This week featured a lot of important developments in Washington and on Wall Street. Citigroup (C) struck a deal with BlackRock’s (BLK) private credit arm HPS to make up to €15bn of loans to companies and leveraged buyout groups across Europe. Democrats released a draft of their autopsy report on Kamala Harris’s stunning 2024 defeat. And unregulated firms offered investors a way to speculate on the coming IPO of SpaceX outside the usual confines of US securities laws. The stalemate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz continued, raising increased pressure on prices for key industrial chemicals and fuels. John Dizard told The IRA this week that he expects to see rationing of fuel and lubricants in the US later this summer. Of course, there is not a word from the Trump White House about shortages of key energy products as a result of the prolonged US-Israeli war with Iran. Even as rising energy prices undermine Republicans hopes for the midterm elections, President Trump continues to say and do things that are forcing members of the Senate to distance themselves from the President. Then there is the new $1.776 billion “anti-weaponization” fund that Hill Republicans reportedly see as politically toxic and an immunity deal for the President and his family with the Department of Justice. These are merely the latest “surprises” from Trump for members of Congress. Readers should ponder why President Trump feels the need for an immunity deal with the DOJ. Political commentator Mark Halperin suggests Trump would prefer to use taxpayer money for a "weaponization fund" to relitigate the 2020 election and January 6th, rather than focusing resources on the upcoming midterms. He warns that Republicans could see a "big wipeout" if voter sentiment on the economy doesn't improve. Citi Doubles Down This week Citigroup (C) struck a deal with BlackRock’s (BLK) private credit arm HPS to make up to €15bn of loans to companies and leveraged buyout groups across Europe. The timing seems a little off, but the surge of spending in and around AI continues to be the biggest area of growth -- and risk -- for bank loans. “Citi-HPS joint venture is a regulatory-capital arbitrage, using non-recourse financing transactions which put Citi and taxpayers at contingent credit, liquidity, correlation, and market risks…..just like its “AAA” arbitrage in 2007/2008,” opines Victor Hong in a LinkedIn post this week. “HPS earns AUM fees in a capital/liquidity/balance-sheet light manner……by borrowing such from Citi, via those non-recourse financing transactions. Citi eats the downside while HPS savors the upside. A 2007 “AAA” pig or a 2026 “Investment-Grade” Private Credit loan P.O.O.P.? Scant difference; similarly non-existent cashflows.” Bitcoin Down, Interest Rates Up Meanwhile, Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of Strategy (MSTR), f/k/a MicroStrategy, stated that the company will "probably sell some Bitcoin" to fund dividends and "inoculate the market," after the firm (now holding hundreds of thousands of coins) faced consecutive quarterly losses. This change marks a stark reversal in Saylor’s public position regarding the value of bitcoin. The war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused Federal Reserve officials' concerns about inflation to intensify last month, with a growing number open to the possibility ​that they may need to raise interest rates. The change in inflation expectations drove the 10-year Treasury bond above 4.6% this week. “Policymakers noted that resurgent price pressures—exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts and higher fuel costs—make achieving their 2% target take longer than expected, prompting many to consider further rate hikes,” reports the Wall Street Journal. So far, President Trump has not attacked his new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh but we expect the honeymoon to be short-lived. The sharp increase in LT interest rates caused the value of loans and securities to fall, but boosted the value of negative duration mortgage servicing assets. The mark-to-market losses of banks have risen because of the increase in LT interest rates. The Fed is also likely to see an increase in unrealized losses on its $2 trillion portfolio of mortgage-backed securities. See our comment on the legacy of Jerome Powell on FT.com. KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk stated earlier that a recent surge in oil and commodities prices has made it "harder and harder" to justify interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. In an interview with Kathleen Hays on Thursday, Swonk said she expects at least one rate hike this year and perhaps as early as July. Silver and gold prices moved sideways over the past week. Nvidia (NVDA) reported good earnings and then traded off on the news. NVDA is down nearly 7% over the past five trading days, but our holdings in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) continue to lead the AI group higher. Over the past year, AMD is up almost 300% vs just 60% for NVDA. Recent Posts Wall Street Killed Bitcoin https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira779 Who is the Next Countrywide Financial? PennyMac, Rocket & UWMC https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira843 The Institutional Risk Analyst (ISSN 2692-1812) is published by Whalen Global Advisors LLC and is provided for general informational purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes or financial advice. By making use of The Institutional Risk Analyst web site and content, the recipient thereof acknowledges and agrees to our copyright and the matters set forth below in this disclaimer. Whalen Global Advisors LLC makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) regarding the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information in The Institutional Risk Analyst. Information contained herein is obtained from public and private sources deemed reliable. Any analysis or statements contained in The Institutional Risk Analyst are preliminary and are not intended to be complete, and such information is qualified in its entirety. Any opinions or estimates contained in The Institutional Risk Analyst represent the judgment of Whalen Global Advisors LLC at this time, and is subject to change without notice. The Institutional Risk Analyst is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or instruments named or described herein. The Institutional Risk Analyst is not intended to provide, and must not be relied on for, accounting, legal, regulatory, tax, business, financial or related advice or investment recommendations. Whalen Global Advisors LLC is not acting as fiduciary or advisor with respect to the information contained herein. You must consult with your own advisors as to the legal, regulatory, tax, business, financial, investment and other aspects of the subjects addressed in The Institutional Risk Analyst. Interested parties are advised to contact Whalen Global Advisors LLC for more information.

May 18, 2026 | Back in September of last year (“Trading Points: Klarna & Figure IPOs”) , we wrote critically of Klarna Group plc (KLAR) prior to its IPO: “Our basic view of Klarna is that the offering is a leading example of damaged goods c/o PE firms. The firm’s $14 billion offering price marks a steep decline from the $45.6 billion valuation assumed in 2021, when Japan’s SoftBank made a $639 million investment.” Since the IPO, KLAR has lost more than 60% of its value vs an 18% gain for the NASDAQ composite. As of Friday’s close, KLAR has a market capitalization of just over $5 billion or about 1/10th of the private valuation in 2021. The Klarna transaction illustrates the basic problem with private equity and credit, namely that the sponsors and insiders have no incentive to be truthful in their statements to investors. A colleague in the media asked the other day how private investment strategies had grown so large. The short answer is inflation. Asset prices have steadily increased since 2008, in large part because the Fed has refused to allow deflation and, indeed, has encouraged inflation to prevent the US financial system from seizing up. As we wrote in the book “Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream”: “The vast amount of debt incurred by governments around the world has forced policymakers to err on the side of ample liquidity in fact, regardless of what the official statements say about encouraging jobs and fighting inflation. In the fall of 2024 on the eve of a presidential election, the Fed decided to end the battle against inflation a little early, a remarkable development given that the central bank had barely reduced the level of bank reserves and home prices had not fallen. Yet the fact was that the Fed was unwilling to reduce market liquidity for fear of causing another systemic event in the bond market a la December 2018 or March 2020.” So long as the general level of asset prices rose, the private equity and credit markets seemed attractive. The systemic bias of the public equity markets to rise due to the predominance of passive strategies contributed to this pleasing illusion. Asset price inflation made the cost of credit negative in residential real estate, encouraging growth in credit strategies. But would investors of all stripes be pouring new cash into private equity or credit strategies if public equity valuations or home prices were flat or even falling? Ponder another example of systemic inflation. The assets of the US banking system “grew an astonishing $888.03 Billion (3.52%) to finish the 1st Quarter at $26.145 Trillion,” notes Bill Moreland of BankRegData. What drove this remarkable increase? Growth in the federal debt, deposits and also in bank loans. "This is a simply stunning number and the natural question is: where did all the funding come from?" Moreland asks. The table below shows the growth rates in bank liabilities in Q1 2026 which support this asset growth. Source: FDIC/BankRegData Most economists will tell you that the federal debt is not inflationary and that the size of bank reserves does not impact asset prices. Modest amounts of federal debt is not inherently inflationary, but deficit spending that creates the debt does contribute to overall demand and thus asset inflation. Also, the debt issued by Treasury fuels more borrowing. When bank assets grow by 3.5% in a single quarter, that inflates asset prices directly and indirectly. When the government borrows money to inject high levels of demand into a supply-constrained economy, as in 2020 during COVID, it drove up prices for housing. The fact that the Fed drove interest rates down to zero only added to the inflationary impact of huge fiscal action, an effect that continues to push up prices even today. As the Budget Lab at Yale University notes in a 2025 paper: “Higher debt adds to the risk of inflationary pressure in both the short- and the long-run, through aggregate demand, inflation expectations, crowding-out of private investment, and worries about fiscal dominance.” A Shrinking Fed Balance Sheet? Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has made reducing the size of the central bank’s balance sheet and thus the level of bank reserves a priority. Most mainstream economists, of course, don’t think that the size or composition of the Fed’s balance sheet matters. In fact, the Fed’s purchase of securities from 2020 onward (and the sequestration of massive duration inside the system open market account or "SOMA") actually allowed the FOMC to keep ST interest rates higher for longer. The chart below shows the SOMA with the red line representing Treasury debt and the green line mortgage securities. If the Fed had not gone overboard with QE during and after COVID, the private markets would have needed to support trillions in Treasury and mortgage securities, and the FOMC would have needed to keep the target for federal funds lower to compensate for the additional duration held by the private markets. When the Fed buys Treasury debt, it is the economic equivalent of giving a sick patient morphine. If the Warsh Board of Governors (not the FOMC note) decides to move forward with a smaller Fed balance sheet, how the Treasury responds will be crucially important, notes Bill Nelson at Bank Policy Institute. In his must-read May 8th missive, Nelson lays out three scenarios for a shrinking Fed balance sheet, which would result in a commensurate decline in bank deposits. The most likely of the three Nelson scenarios is that the Fed shrinks the SOMA and Treasury issues zero duration T-bills in response, meaning that the FOMC would not need to lower ST rates. “Suppose instead the Treasury replaced the Fed’s portfolio holdings with new debt that had the same 5-year duration as the existing public debt, Nelson writes. “In that case the committee would need to reduce the target by 62 bp to leave the policy stance unchanged.” The more interesting possibility for Warsh involves a swap of the $2 trillion in MBS in the SOMA, which has a duration that is 3x the Fed’s whole portfolio. If the Treasury were to swap the Fed for the MBS with say 7-10 year notes, the monetary impact would be neutral. Then comes the bigger question of what to do with the MBS outside the duration sequestration of the Fed’s balance sheet? As we’ve written before ("Should the FOMC End Fed Funds Targeting? Issue CMOs?"), the obvious answer to the problem of the Fed's MBS position is for Treasury to hold the agency and government MBS. The White House can then direct the GSEs, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae, to engage with Street dealers and large end investors to restructure the paper into collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs). The idea is to place this attractive, “AAA” paper with banks, insurers and pensions, forever. Insurers in particular would be natural buyers of the long-duration tails from these deals. Even though the paper would technically be “held by the public,” the fact of the duration transformation of the different CMO tranches would render the issuance neutral in terms of the public markets and FOMC policy. Warsh can correct the grievous error of QE under Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell of doing too much for too long, and without creating yet another problem for policy. Chairman Warsh argue that the reduction in the size of the SOMA warranted a permanent reduction in the federal funds market. More, the permanent interment of the $2 trillion in duration represented by the Fed’s MBS hoard would give the Committee some additional flexibility in terms of managing the duration of the Treasury’s public market. “According to the New York Fed Market Group’s Annual Report, the duration of the Fed’s Treasury portfolio at the end of last year was 6.7 years,” Nelson wrote, but the true duration of the $2 trillion in MBS in the SOMA today is closer to 16-20 years. When these MBS held by the Fed were created during COVID, the duration was closer to 2-3 years. Source: dataQollab The good news is that Warsh can credibly advocate a cut in the ST target for Fed funds, but it involves shrinking the Fed balance sheet and reserves by $2-3 trillion and some artful coordination with the Treasury in the process. Given Nelson’s views, the best route may be for Treasury to issue longer term, longer duration debt, which would arguably force a 50bp rate cut by the Committee in response. We all need to remember that shrinking the Treasury portion of the Fed balance sheet is the easy part. The $2 trillion in notional amount of MBS held in SOMA, which now has an effective duration that is much, much bigger than the rest of the portfolio combined, requires some subtlety. The good news is that the agencies and Ginnie Mae are thinking about a potential Fed MBS swap with Treasury. Wall Street can make it all happen and profit handsomely by selling a lot of “AAA” rated CMOs. The Institutional Risk Analyst (ISSN 2692-1812) is published by Whalen Global Advisors LLC and is provided for general informational purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes or financial advice. By making use of The Institutional Risk Analyst web site and content, the recipient thereof acknowledges and agrees to our copyright and the matters set forth below in this disclaimer. Whalen Global Advisors LLC makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) regarding the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information in The Institutional Risk Analyst. Information contained herein is obtained from public and private sources deemed reliable. Any analysis or statements contained in The Institutional Risk Analyst are preliminary and are not intended to be complete, and such information is qualified in its entirety. Any opinions or estimates contained in The Institutional Risk Analyst represent the judgment of Whalen Global Advisors LLC at this time, and is subject to change without notice. The Institutional Risk Analyst is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or instruments named or described herein. The Institutional Risk Analyst is not intended to provide, and must not be relied on for, accounting, legal, regulatory, tax, business, financial or related advice or investment recommendations. Whalen Global Advisors LLC is not acting as fiduciary or advisor with respect to the information contained herein. You must consult with your own advisors as to the legal, regulatory, tax, business, financial, investment and other aspects of the subjects addressed in The Institutional Risk Analyst. Interested parties are advised to contact Whalen Global Advisors LLC for more information.

In this week’s edition of “The Wrap,” we feature our view of the top events in Washington and on Wall Street over the past week. And do watch “The Wrap with Chris Whalen” on The Julia LaRoche Show every Saturday on YouTube to catch our discussion of what’s hot and what’s not in the world of finance and investing. May 15, 2026 | This week featured a lot of important developments in Washington and on Wall Street. For example: President Donald Trump was in Beijing for talks with President Xi Jinping, with discussions covering tech, trade, and the Iran war. Xi hailed the US-China relationship as the world’s most consequential, telling President Donald Trump: “We must make it work and never mess it up.” The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached the 50,000 level, driven by intense investor demand for AI and technology stocks. Cisco (CSCO) and other technology shares surged following strong AI demand signals, but remember we are chasing the spend. Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, but faces a complex environment because inflation is showing signs of staying high. Markets have been reacting to potential changes in monetary policy under his leadership. Reflecting market fears about inflation, the 30-year Treasury bond topped 5% for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis. We expect Chairman Warsh to slowly make changes in how the Fed operates and models the outlook for inflation and the economy. The inflation from the Iran war is caused by energy prices and a growing shortage of by-products. There is not much the Fed can do to address these sources of inflation. We expect to see rationing of key products like lubricants and sulfuric acid soon in the US. Warsh is likely going to pursue a smaller Fed balance sheet and try to use this "tightening" as a bargaining chip to get the FOMC to lower ST rates systemically. Warsh is a supply sider, so he fundamentally disagrees with the left/progressive perspective of Bernanke/Yellen/Powell, who all thought that the Fed could control the Treasury yield curve. His comments on the disaster of QE are quite clear. Warsh once called QE “reverse Robin Hood” because he thinks correctly that it favored those with more assets. He said that the Fed should be concerned with the distributional consequences of its policies. This week we published a comment about United Wholesale Mortgage (UWMC) and their failing campaign to acquire the REIT Two Harbors (TWO). This was easily the most widely read post on The IRA in the past year. Bottom line is that UWMC can’t afford to pay cash for the purchase, but the UWMC stock essentially has no value as an acquisition currency. In our latest column in National Mortgage News, we argue that restricting institutional investors deploying capital in single family homes is bad policy, but reforming 1031 exchanges and requiring public listings for HUD homes could boost affordability. We write: "The Trump Administration has been struggling to come up with practical policies to help address the surge in home prices caused by the errant policies of the Powell FOMC. One simple but powerful approach is to require HUD, the GSEs and any private issuers working in the conventional and government markets to expose single-family homes to the retail markets before institutional firms are allowed to bid. Problem solved." In the past five trading days, gold has moved sideways as some managers have been taking profits from last year. Silver futures rose by over 6%, driven by the steady flow of news reports about developments in the technology sector that will boost demand for the metal. China bought a record-breaking amount of silver in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, driven by intense demand for solar manufacturing and retail investment. China imported approximately 1,536 to 1,626 tonnes of silver in the first quarter, confirming our view that silver is likely to continue to outperform gold significantly this year. Recent Posts Who is the Next Countrywide Financial? PennyMac, Rocket & UWMC https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira843 Loan Think The real fix for housing: Reform 1031s and HUD sales https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/opinion/the-real-fix-for-housing-reform-1031s-and-hud-sales The Institutional Risk Analyst (ISSN 2692-1812) is published by Whalen Global Advisors LLC and is provided for general informational purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes or financial advice. By making use of The Institutional Risk Analyst web site and content, the recipient thereof acknowledges and agrees to our copyright and the matters set forth below in this disclaimer. Whalen Global Advisors LLC makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) regarding the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information in The Institutional Risk Analyst. Information contained herein is obtained from public and private sources deemed reliable. Any analysis or statements contained in The Institutional Risk Analyst are preliminary and are not intended to be complete, and such information is qualified in its entirety. Any opinions or estimates contained in The Institutional Risk Analyst represent the judgment of Whalen Global Advisors LLC at this time, and is subject to change without notice. The Institutional Risk Analyst is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or instruments named or described herein. The Institutional Risk Analyst is not intended to provide, and must not be relied on for, accounting, legal, regulatory, tax, business, financial or related advice or investment recommendations. Whalen Global Advisors LLC is not acting as fiduciary or advisor with respect to the information contained herein. You must consult with your own advisors as to the legal, regulatory, tax, business, financial, investment and other aspects of the subjects addressed in The Institutional Risk Analyst. Interested parties are advised to contact Whalen Global Advisors LLC for more information.

May 14, 2026 | One of the benefits of being a Premium Service subscriber to The Institutional Risk Analyst is that you get to ask us questions and suggest topics. Today we look at two interesting names that have performed well in the past several years, Ameriprise Financial (AMP) and Bread Financial Holdings (BFH). AMP is a $190 billion asset bank holding company headquartered in Minneapolis, MN, and BFH is a nonbank lender based in Columbus, OH. The bank unit of AMP is just 1/10 of the group's assets but has a return on assets that is 3x the industry average. AMP has been a stellar market and financial performer over the past five years, but in the last twelve months has suffered because of the continuous noise around AI. BFH is a $22 billion asset credit card issuer that is up ~ 55% in the past year, as shown in the chart below. Source: Yahoo Finance (5/13/26)

May 11, 2026 | Updated | This week The Institutional Risk Analyst looks at the nonbank mortgage sector as the prospect for lower interest rates is fading fast. On the one hand, a number of the larger issuers are continuing to thrive even in a difficult interest rate market. Second lien mortgages and non-agency jumbo loans are growing as a percentage of overall production volumes. On the other hand, the aggressive behavior of some issuers is distorting pricing for loans in the secondary market and may be creating the circumstances for the next systemic “surprise” in the nonbank sector. To us, Exhibit A in the category of a potential nonbank default event is United Wholesale Mortgage (UWMC), aka “Countrywide II.” (* We have no positions in any of the issuers discussed below.) Cross Country Wins Two Harbors If you were watching the auction for the crippled Two Harbors (TWO) REIT, you might feel both sad and concerned. Sad because TWO has a $2.1 billion mortgage servicing right (MSR) that is going to trade for half of that value due to the $1.3 billion negative net worth of the REIT. But we are more concerned because, as Rich Swerbinsky wrote on LinkedIn, UWMC seems to need this deal very badly, but clearly cannot afford it. Last week, leading retail lender Cross Country Mortgage (CCM) raised their cash bid for TWO to $12 per share, matching a revised offer from UWMC at $12 per share of TWO. But the UWMC offer seemed more like window dressing to us than a serious counter to the CCM all-cash proposal. “The CCM transaction delivers a fixed price all-cash consideration to every TWO stockholder — automatically and without election — with committed financing, no financing contingency, and a clear path to close in the shortest time frame,” Two Harbors CEO Bill Greenberg noted. “Our Board unanimously recommends that stockholders vote FOR the proposed merger with CCM.” Part of the problem is that UWMC’s stock is simply not attractive as an alternative to the cash offer from CCM. The default stock consideration under UWM’s offer was worth approximately $7.88 per TWO share based on UWMC’s May 7 closing price, TWO noted. All three of the largest mortgage issuers have sold off dramatically since the start of the year as expectations for lower interest rates have evaporated in the heat of the war with Iran. Source: Google Finance (05/08/2026) There are ~ 294 million UWMC shares out trading publicly below $4, which means the shares essentially have no collateral value and even less value as an acquisition currency. Insiders control 13% of the public float and institutional holders 66%. But insiders control another 1.3 billion shares "that may be issued to SFS Corp. or its transferees or assignees in connection with future Exchange Transactions," according to the 2025 UWMC 10-K. The Up-C structure of UWMC, which isolates the operating business from public shareholders in a partnership, is decidedly unattractive to investors from a credit perspective. To us, the public stock has no real value, especially when we consider the net debt of the issuer after excluding the mortgage servicing rights (MSR). As we've noted previously, when looking at an independent mortgage bank (IMB), unsecured debt and MSRs need to be roughly in balance. In an economic sense, the unsecured debt holders really own UWMC, yet the operating assets may be beyond reach of all public investors. But the problems with UWMC run far deeper than the current stock price and have to do with an unsustainable business model that is damaging the entire residential mortgage industry. United Wholesale Mortgage: Countrywide Redux The basic issue with the UWMC business model is they pay too much for loans in order to protect their dominant (40% plus) market share in wholesale lending. Rocket Companies (RKT) is second at less than 10% and PennyMac Financial (PFSI) is third around 5%, according to Inside Mortgage Finance. As a result, UWMC is the largest nonbank lender in the US. When mortgage rates were falling early in Q1, you would see “UWMC partners “ quoting way below market rates like 4.5%, rates not even visible in the pricing engines of most lenders. These brokers quote below market rates and hope the market gets there, but UWMC has been "buying down" loan coupon rates for years. For example, UWMC is currently offering free 1-0 lender-paid temporary rate buydowns on conventional and government purchase loans through June 30, 2026. This initiative, which reduces the borrower's interest rate by 1% for the first year, was launched to boost affordability for broker partners, but ensures a cash loss for UWMC. It is not uncommon for borrowers to receive unsolicited text messages after closing a loan offering to refinance a mortgage immediately at a lower rate. UWMC brokers also reportedly ignore legal prohibitions on contacting the customers of other lenders, saying: “I see you just refinanced, what is the rate you got?“ This is completely illegal without an opt in by the borrower. Two decades ago, another extremely aggressive lender, Countrywide Financial, utilized similar lending practices to boost volumes. Countrywide was a thrift that had meager core deposits and habitually overpaid for loans to hurt competitors, forcing down profits for the entire industry. Under CEO Angelo Mozilo, Countrywide aimed for massive market share, pushing risky private label loans and using a "race to the bottom" policy to match any competitor's offering – precisely the same modus operandi as UWMC. Due to these aggressive practices and subsequent legal fallout, Countrywide was forced into an involuntary sale to warehouse lender Bank of America (BAC) in 2008. As we noted in an earlier comment, none of the warehouse lender banks serving UWMC today would even think of buying the largest US nonbank lender. In terms of reported earnings, UWM reported a strong start to 2026 with $44.9 billion in 1Q 26 loan origination volume, a 9.5% dip from the $49.6 billion in 4Q25, but a significant 39% increase year-over-year from 1Q 2025. The quarter marked their second-best first quarter in company history on a GAAP basis, but beneath the surface the UWMC story is far more complicated. The willingness of UWMC to pay up for loans in order to gain market share has reportedly compressed gain-on-sale margins and profitability across the industry and saddled the company with excessive debt. Like Countrywide, we worry that UWMC is clearly overextended because of its aggressive business model and that this fact is hurting all of the public comps across the entire mortgage entire sector. Source: MBA Quarterly Performance Report Mat Ishbia, CEO of UWMC, said: “Q1 was an exceptional quarter for UWM and our second‑best first quarter of all time. The last time we delivered results of this magnitude, interest rates were nearly 50% lower, which underscores the strength, scale and resilience of our business. Our team and broker partners executed at the highest level, using UWM’s proprietary technology and AI‑powered tools like Mia to win more loans, more efficiently, every day.” Winning more loans means, in simple terms, that UWMC is bleeding more cash. UWMC reported $450 million in liquidity in Q1 2026, but this is not nearly enough for a firm of their size. How does UWMC make up both the cash deficit and also the ugly GAAP disclosure? By selling mortgage servicing rights below cost, increasing corporate debt and adjusting the valuation of the firm’s MSRs to increasing borrowing capacity. Creating conventional MSRs multiples above 6x cash flow, but selling them at or below 5x is not a great trade in our book. "In the past couple of years, they were also in the habit of selling long-duration low coupon MSR to fund the origination of low duration high coupon MSR," notes one industry insider maven. "My description of this was 'selling the gold to buy the lead' (and yes, a double-entendre on 'lead')." Under GAAP, changes in the modelled fair value of the MSR flow through income in the same quarter. Thus while UWMC reported a decline in the size or unpaid principal balance (UPB) of its servicing book in Q1 2026, the valuation of the MSR magically increased by double digits, as shown in the table below. United Wholesale Mortgage Again, the UPB of the UWMC servicing book fell in Q1, yet the value of the related servicing asset magically went up double digits. Specifically, as of Q1 2026, UWMC apparently valued their combined MSR book at over 5.5x annual cash flows, an adjustment that accounted for most of their GAAP earnings in Q1 2026. Looking at the data from the major MSR brokers, the true value of MSRs in the market today is closer to 4.8x on conventional servicing assets and 3.8x on Ginnie Mae MSRs. If UWMC were forced to sell their MSR, that would imply a ~ 50 bps write-down (over $1B) and could wipe out two-thirds of the company’s equity. If UWMC had more rational pricing, the production volumes would fall but secondary market profitability would probably increase – both for UWMC and the entire industry. But remember that the Countrywide model is to use loss leader pricing for loans to drive out competition. As one issuer told The IRA last week, if UWMC disappeared tomorrow, gain on sale margins in the industry would at least double. While Ishbia claims that the acquisition of TWO was about increasing the UWMC servicing book, in fact the motivation seems to be accessing a new source of liquidity to offset mounting operating losses. We find the hyper aggressive UWMC business model to be unstable, unsustainable and remarkably similar to pre-crisis Countrywide. The big difference between 2008 and 2026, of course, is that residential mortgage rates may not go down significantly for some time. PennyMac Financial This week saw several other important earnings announcements from the mortgage sector, including PennyMac Financial (PFSI) and Rocket Mortgage (RKT). Both saw better volumes in Q1 2026 and a mark down of mortgage servicing rights due to lower interest rates in the first two months of the quarter. Rebounding from the disastrous Q4 2025 earnings release, PFSI reported a mixed first quarter of 2026, with Q1 net income of $82.3 million ($1.53 per diluted share) missing analyst expectations. Adjusted EPS of $2.19 fell short of estimates, largely due to weaker servicing results and hedging losses. Strong production segment earnings, which hit a five-year high, helped offset these losses. PFSI pushed up volumes in the broker channel, where they are head to head with UWMC, as shown below. PennyMac Financial Source: PFSI (Q1 2026) PFSI’s servicing book was essentially flat in Q1. Production volume was more than offset by $26 billion in runoff from prepayments and the previously-announced sale of $24 billion in UPB of MSRs that transferred early in 1Q 2026. The fair value of the PFSI MSR was $10.1 billion at the end of Q1 2026, reflecting a change in the modelled valuation of less than 2%. Compare that to the double digit increase in the valuation of the UWMC MSRs noted above. The Rocket Companies Rocket Companies delivered strong first-quarter 2026 results, beating Wall Street expectations with $2.94 billion in total revenue and a GAAP net income of $297 million. The company saw significant growth compared to a net loss of $212 million in the same period last year, fueled by a 19% sequential increase in net rate lock volume to $49 billion. RKT ended the quarter with $19.3 billion in MSRs and $2.6 billion in cash. Rocket Companies | Q1 2026 The table above shows the dramatic impact of the merger with Mr. Cooper in Q3 last year, leading to a 3x growth in revenue and EBITDA. Today RKT has twice the MSRs of JPMorgan (JPM) and far better liquidity and profitability than any other nonbank issuer in the mortgage sector. The change in the fair value of the RKT MSR in Q1 2026 vs Q4 2025 was less than 1%. Of course the success of RKT is very much a joint effort, but we give a big hat tip to Jay Bray and the Mr. Cooper team. Rocket Companies | Q1 2026 While we don't own securities in any of the nonbank mortgage issuers because of our extensive work in the industry, we do think that RKT and PFSI offer some interesting value for investors after the sharp selloff in Q1 2026. But we do not expect to see short-term interest rates fall for most of this year due to the inflationary impact of the Iran war. That said, in the event that a lasting cessation of hostilities does occur between the US and Iran, we will likely see a sustained rally in longer-term interest rates. The demarcation point for an increase in mortgage lending volumes is a about 4.1% yield on the Treasury 10-year note, as shown in the chart below. Source: dataQollab The Institutional Risk Analyst (ISSN 2692-1812) is published by Whalen Global Advisors LLC and is provided for general informational purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes or financial advice. By making use of The Institutional Risk Analyst web site and content, the recipient thereof acknowledges and agrees to our copyright and the matters set forth below in this disclaimer. Whalen Global Advisors LLC makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) regarding the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information in The Institutional Risk Analyst. Information contained herein is obtained from public and private sources deemed reliable. Any analysis or statements contained in The Institutional Risk Analyst are preliminary and are not intended to be complete, and such information is qualified in its entirety. Any opinions or estimates contained in The Institutional Risk Analyst represent the judgment of Whalen Global Advisors LLC at this time, and is subject to change without notice. The Institutional Risk Analyst is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or instruments named or described herein. The Institutional Risk Analyst is not intended to provide, and must not be relied on for, accounting, legal, regulatory, tax, business, financial or related advice or investment recommendations. Whalen Global Advisors LLC is not acting as fiduciary or advisor with respect to the information contained herein. You must consult with your own advisors as to the legal, regulatory, tax, business, financial, investment and other aspects of the subjects addressed in The Institutional Risk Analyst. Interested parties are advised to contact Whalen Global Advisors LLC for more information.

In this week’s edition of “The Wrap,” we feature our view of the top events in Washington and on Wall Street over the past week. And do watch “The Wrap with Chris Whalen” on The Julia LaRoche Show every Saturday on YouTube to catch our discussion of what’s hot and what’s not in the world of finance and investing. Below for subscribers to our Premium Service we have instructions how to access a replay of last week's quarterly call. May 8, 2026 | As the week came to an end, reports of a possible peace deal with Iran pushed up gold prices and hurt the dollar. Is a peace deal for real? President Donald Trump has on numerous occasions indicated that a deal is near, Bloomberg reports, though none has materialized. What is under discussion as this week ends is a month-long cease fire -- maybe. As this issue of The Wrap was being posted, the US and Iran had resumed hostilities. We remain skeptical that the government of Iran will agree to a cessation of hostilities with Israel and the US, especially while the government of Benjamin Netanyahu continues its campaign of ethnic cleansing in Gaza and Lebanon. Even if the US somehow manages to craft a peace deal with Iran, Israel's increasingly authoritarian government must continue the policy of continuous war or lose its grip on power. Will Israel hold elections as scheduled this fall? Rumors of a deal in the Middle East eased inflation worries, at least for now, but the reality is the much of Asia, Europe and event the US are facing shortages of fuel and key industrial products as a result of the Iran war. But shortages are also good for prices. Easing tensions reduced the demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, allowing it to fall on both Wednesday and Thursday this week. Gold and Silver Surge In the past five trading days, gold has moved up almost 3% but silver has done even better. Physical supply constraints in India and Asia are pushing prices for gold and silver higher, illustrating the disconnect between the momentum driven financial markets in the US and Europe and the physical market in Asia. Source: Google Finance (5/7/26) Indian banks face an unprecedented five-week halt in gold and silver imports, causing domestic prices to surge and threatening shortages, reports The Economic Times. Administrative hurdles and tax uncertainties have stalled shipments since April 1st. “Roughly 70% of global silver comes as a byproduct of base‑metal mining,” writes Silver Academy, “making dedicated primary silver producers the cleanest way to capture upside from a tightening physical market.” We continue to add to our positions in both gold and silver. We have updated the WGA Precious Metals Top 25 list for subscribers to our Premium Service. The top performer of the group remains the ZKB Silver ETF (0VR6.L). We now have 47 funds and mining stocks in our Precious Metals group, which provides our subscribers with a broad range of ways to get exposure to the metals sector. Fed Balance Sheet Grows We’ve noted in past comment that Kevin Warsh, the nominee to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, wants to shrink the balance sheet of the central bank, but in fact the Fed’s balance sheet is growing. Some economists think that setting the level of reserves is a policy choice, but we believe instead that the size of the Fed’s balance sheet is linked to the growth in public debt. Our view is seasoned by years of working in Mexico. The Federal recently resumed growing its balance sheet, with total assets rising to approximately $6.63–$6.7 trillion as of early May 2026. After peaking near $9 trillion in 2022 and subsequently shrinking, the Fed began increasing holdings to add reserves, including a $42 billion rise in February 2026, comprised mostly of T-bills. Purchases of debt for the system open market account is inflationary since it increases the level of bank deposits and assets. Private credit continues to be a source of concern Black Rock’s (BLK) sponsored TCP Capital (TCPC) cut the value of its publicly-traded private credit fund by about 5%, due to troubled loans, markdowns and lower returns. And Apollo Global (APO) CEO Marc Rowan says that he plans to offer investors daily faux valuations for private credit funds by the end of September, a move that they hope will ease worries about the health of an opaque world of private lending. But do investors even care? Meanwhile, the AI sector in stocks has once again surged as earnings results for a variety of players have come in strongly. Our LT position in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up 300% in the past year. Nvidia (NVDA) also continued its strong performance, but is “only” up 80% in the past year. Micron Technology (MU) and energy infrastructure platform Hut 8 Corp (HUT) also stand out as top-performing AI-related stocks over the past week. Subscribers to The IRA Premium Service may login and download a replay of last week's quarterly call on the Top Rankings page. Recent Posts WGA Bank Top 50 Q2 2026 | Bank Failures and Mortgage Bankers https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira841 Trading Points: China, Sulfur & Silver 银 https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira839 The Institutional Risk Analyst (ISSN 2692-1812) is published by Whalen Global Advisors LLC and is provided for general informational purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes or financial advice. By making use of The Institutional Risk Analyst web site and content, the recipient thereof acknowledges and agrees to our copyright and the matters set forth below in this disclaimer. Whalen Global Advisors LLC makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) regarding the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information in The Institutional Risk Analyst. Information contained herein is obtained from public and private sources deemed reliable. Any analysis or statements contained in The Institutional Risk Analyst are preliminary and are not intended to be complete, and such information is qualified in its entirety. Any opinions or estimates contained in The Institutional Risk Analyst represent the judgment of Whalen Global Advisors LLC at this time, and is subject to change without notice. The Institutional Risk Analyst is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or instruments named or described herein. The Institutional Risk Analyst is not intended to provide, and must not be relied on for, accounting, legal, regulatory, tax, business, financial or related advice or investment recommendations. Whalen Global Advisors LLC is not acting as fiduciary or advisor with respect to the information contained herein. You must consult with your own advisors as to the legal, regulatory, tax, business, financial, investment and other aspects of the subjects addressed in The Institutional Risk Analyst. Interested parties are advised to contact Whalen Global Advisors LLC for more information.

"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself…. There is no distinctly American criminal class—except Congress." Mark Twain May 4, 2026 | This week The Institutional Risk Analyst celebrates the one-year anniversary of the publication of the Second Edition of “Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream” by our friends at John Wiley & Sons. The message of Inflated is very simple: Americans don’t like paying taxes and the Congress, being democratically elected, is comprised of invidious cowards unwilling to make tough decisions. As Americans, we pay our way via continuous currency inflation, yet in doing so have created the world's default means of exchange and also finance. This suggests a barbel strategy to prudent investing that we’ll address in a future comment. FDIC Promptly Resolves Second Bank Failure Last week, Community Bank and Trust - West Georgia of LaGrange, Georgia was closed by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. The FDIC acted as per the Depression era laws that facilitate bank resolutions and literally saved the country from a forced liquidation a 110 years ago The creation of the FDIC as the first federal receiver in 1933 enabled the restructuring of the US economy. In particular, FDIC allowed Federal Reserve Banks to lend to solvent member banks in a meaningful way. Wisconsin businessman Leo Crowley at the FDIC and Houston business giant Jesse Jones at the Reconstruction Finance Corp proceeded to restructure thousands of banks and the US economy and, later, prepare for war. Both men served the United States through WWII. As FDIC Chairman, Crowley focused on stabilizing the banking system by strengthening capital structures and eliminating weak, unsound banks, rather than merely bailing them out. He urged banks to adopt a "10-to-1" deposit-to-capital ratio, advocating that banks sell capital stock or notes to the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC) to improve solvency and public confidence. Crowley later ran war finance for the FDR Administration. Last week, the Crowley designed FDIC entered into an agreement with Anchor Bank of Palm Beach Gardens, Florida to assume substantially all insured deposits and acquire certain assets of Community Bank and Trust - West Georgia, which had $288 million in total assets at the end of 2025. FDIC currently estimates that the failure of Community Bank and Trust, which is located on the I-85 corridor between Atlanta and Montgomery, will cost its Deposit Insurance Fund approximately $97 million or one-third of total assets. Why did the bank fail? Realized losses related to construction loans, farm land and owner-occupied commercial loans. The bank had almost 6% of total assets in non-performing loans, a Texas ratio of 150% at year-end 2025 and did not file a call report in Q1 2026. But any banker will tell you that real estate exposures along the endless highways of Georgia can be treacherous places to extend credit. But big hat tip to FDIC for another prompt resolution. The lesson of Silicon Valley bank is that insolvent institutions are sold immediately. UWMC Raises Bid for Two Harbors Meanwhile in the world of mortgage finance, United Wholesale Mortgage Corp (UWMC) audaciously issued an open letter to the stockholders of Two Harbors Investment Corp. (TWO) last week. The letter sets out why UWMC’s believes that the new $12 per share offer is clearly superior to Two Harbors’ proposed transaction with private Cross Country Mortgage. At present, TWO is trading just north of $12 per share for a market capitalization of about $1.3 billion. Yet TWO owns a mortgage servicing right (MSR) with a fair value over $2.2 billion. What gives? Sad to say, TWO has a $1.3 billion negative book value due to mark-to-market losses on its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio from rising interest rates and widening spreads, a disastrous $375 million litigation settlement, high operating expenses, and extensive share buybacks. Which deal is better? To us, holders of TWO should pick the highest cash offer available, whether from wholesale giant UWMC or retail leader Cross Country. We like the LT prospect of Cross Country better than UWMC because of the lower leverage and more rational business model. Like some other large lenders, UWMC has been waiting for lower mortgage interest rates to drive up lending volumes and essentially dig their way out of a hole. But rates may rise from here. Source: dataQollab We’ve written about the eye-watering corporate debt at UWMC (“Countrywide II: UWMC + TWO = ? Loan Depot Flops, Again”), net of secured debt for loan production. When a non-bank lender has a lot more unsecured debt than MSR, that’s bad. The levels of leverage at UWMC have caught the attention of the mortgage finance industry. More, at below $5 per share, UWMC has zero collateral value, another reason why TWO holders should stick with Cross Country. Remember, the MSR is the net present value of future cash flows. Imagine what Leo Crowley would say about an intangible, negative duration MSR in a discussion about bank solvency? Banks did not book intangibles period in 1933. When a non-bank lender like UWMC is selling MSRs at a discount to the cost of creation to offset operating losses, that’s even worse in our book. The more astute players in the industry retain the MSR, finance the asset in the bank and HY debt markets, keep MSR hedge costs to a minimum, and spend their cash creating new servicing assets. To us, creating MSRs on a ~ 6x multiple because your bid for loans in the wholesale channel is totally excessive, then selling the servicing at a discount to raise cash is not a viable model LT. UWMC 10-K February 2026 We’d like to see UWMC back off their bid a tad for new loans and retain the MSR, but it may already be too late for such prudent counsel to change the ultimate outcome we’ve warned about for several years. Trouble is, unlike Countrywide which was acquired by Bank of America (BAC) in mid-2008, none of the secured bank lenders to UWMC including Goldman Sachs (GS) and Citigroup (C) are likely to purchase the largest non-bank lender in the US when they stumble. The WGA Bank Top 50 The results for the WGA Bank Top 50 reflect market conditions, with some of the larger banks in the industry far down on the list. The top-ranked bank in Q2 2026 among the 99 publicly traded banks in our test group was Morgan Stanley (MS) followed by Northern Trust (NTRS) and Bank of New York Mellon (BK). NTRS was #2 last quarter as well and BK moved up from #9 in Q1. MS had a total score of 459 out of a maximum possible score of 495. The chart below shows the distribution of banks by market cap starting from the highest score for MS at left. WGA Bank Top 50 | Q2 2026 Source: Yahoo Finance/WGA LLC Some notable observations from the group include: Goldman Sachs dropped to #6 in Q2 vs #1 in Q1 2026. JPMorgan rose to #13 from 44th in Q1 2026. Citigroup rose to #8 in Q2 from 16th in Q1 2026 due to continued strong market performance, but notice the tiny market cap vs JPM. State Street (STT) rose from 13th in Q1 2026 to #4 in Q2 2026. The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) rose from 30th in Q1 2026 to #7 in Q2. Of course, in the muddled markets at present, there are a number of low-scoring banks which have done relatively well in recent weeks. The parent company of tiny Merchants Bank of Indiana, Merchants Bancorp (MBIN), for example, saw its stock price rise significantly in early 2026, 2x the S&P 500 over the past year, driven primarily by its inclusion in a major index and strong financial performance. We've written positively about MBIN in the past, yet based upon size and the qualitative factors in our test, the overall score ended up at 50th. Subscribers to the Premium Service may login to view the Bank Top 50 and the entire 99 bank test group on our website, down from 101 subjects in Q1 2026. Comerica Incorporated was acquired in an act if supreme generosity by Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), and Two Rivers Financial Group was acquired by First Mid Bancshares (FBMH). https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/toprankings We will be updating The WGA Precious Metals Top 25 this week. The Institutional Risk Analyst (ISSN 2692-1812) is published by Whalen Global Advisors LLC and is provided for general informational purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes or financial advice. By making use of The Institutional Risk Analyst web site and content, the recipient thereof acknowledges and agrees to our copyright and the matters set forth below in this disclaimer. Whalen Global Advisors LLC makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) regarding the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information in The Institutional Risk Analyst. Information contained herein is obtained from public and private sources deemed reliable. Any analysis or statements contained in The Institutional Risk Analyst are preliminary and are not intended to be complete, and such information is qualified in its entirety. Any opinions or estimates contained in The Institutional Risk Analyst represent the judgment of Whalen Global Advisors LLC at this time, and is subject to change without notice. The Institutional Risk Analyst is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or instruments named or described herein. The Institutional Risk Analyst is not intended to provide, and must not be relied on for, accounting, legal, regulatory, tax, business, financial or related advice or investment recommendations. Whalen Global Advisors LLC is not acting as fiduciary or advisor with respect to the information contained herein. You must consult with your own advisors as to the legal, regulatory, tax, business, financial, investment and other aspects of the subjects addressed in The Institutional Risk Analyst. Interested parties are advised to contact Whalen Global Advisors LLC for more information.

In this week’s edition of “The Wrap,” we feature our view of the top events in Washington and on Wall Street over the past week. And please do watch “The Wrap with Chris Whalen” on The Julia LaRoche Show every Saturday on YouTube to catch our discussion of what’s hot and what’s not in the world of finance and investing. May 1, 2026 | This week the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board was approved by the Senate Banking Committee. But as we predicted some time ago, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is going to re main on the Fed's Board of Governors after his term as chairman ends on May 15th. We expect a Senate vote for Kevin Warsh before Powell's term ends. The FOMC press conference this week was remarkable for many reasons, but the key factor for the banking and mortgage industries is that there is clearly not a consensus for rate cuts at this time. In fact, the FOMC voted to leave interest rates unchanged, but with the most dissenting votes cast since 1992. The 8-4 FOMC vote included three dissents that agreed with leaving rates unchanged but didn’t support the weak comment about “easing bias” in the FOMC statement. That suggests Warsh will face major obstacles if he tries to convince the Committee to cut rates. More, the decision by Powell to stay on means that President Trump is denied a second open seat on the Board of Governors. Governor Stephen Miran will exit to make room for Warsh. One aspect of the Powell press conference that has received too little attention was Powell's comments about Warsh possibly replacing Reserve Bank presidents. Powell warned against removing regional Fed presidents because of their monetary policy views. “That would be the beginning of the end of the Fed’s ability to make monetary policy independently,” he said, but the media did not notice. As we discussed in our interview with Alex Pollock ("Interview: Alex Pollock on the Fed and Gold | Part I"), the 1935 amendments to the Federal Reserve Act designed by Marriner Eccles made the chairman the chief executive of the agency with unilateral power to reject the appointment of Reserve Bank presidents by the local boards of directors. See article below from The International Economy. This week we featured a comment about the growing inflationary impact of the US-Israeli war with Iran (“Trading Points: China, Sulfur & Silver 银”) and our thoughts on positioning to benefit from the disruption. In Washington, the Trump Administration thinks that curtailing Iranian exports of oil and byproducts will bring Tehran to heel, but it is also boosting inflation and causing a critical shortage of sulfuric acid and other byproducts. As we wrote this week: “China is the world's leading producer of sulfur (19 million metric tons in 2025), but already faced tight supply and rising prices in January. China has since implemented a ban on sulfuric acid exports starting in May 2026. Along with a 37.67% year-over-year drop in Q1 2026 imports, China is restricting global supply of sulfuric acid dramatically. What does this mean for stocks and precious metals?” Earlier this week we had a great conversation with Keith McCullough, CEO of Hedgeye. You can watch the podcast below. Markets moved down during the past five trading days, with gold and silver off single digits and crypto tokens sagging. Stocks were mostly lower most of the week, but surged on Thursday within a highly concentrated group of technology stocks. Charlie McElligott at Nomura (NMR) described the market action earlier this week: "Mutual funds are getting crunched because they can’t / don’t own enough of what matters—As ten Tech stocks account for ~75% of the 12% SPX rally since March 30th—and officially killing-off the brief 4Q25/1Q26 “Dispersion” out of MegaCap Tech AI into “Everything Else.” Instead, it’s now “back to the future”: Mag7+ in total control of index returns yet again, where due to the return to “extreme concentration of returns,” these structural underweights in the largest Index market cap stocks sees performance pain further compounded by legacy “Funding Shorts” (INTC, AMD, QCOM, analog chip makers, power names) also booming higher and creating what’s been a nonstop scramble to close the undercapture." Recent Posts & Reading Trading Points: China, Sulfur & Silver 银 https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira839 D. Ricardo on Private Credit & the Real Risk to Financial Markets https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira836 How to Really Reform the Fed https://www.international-economy.com/TIE_Su25_Whalen.pdf The Institutional Risk Analyst (ISSN 2692-1812) is published by Whalen Global Advisors LLC and is provided for general informational purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes or financial advice. By making use of The Institutional Risk Analyst web site and content, the recipient thereof acknowledges and agrees to our copyright and the matters set forth below in this disclaimer. Whalen Global Advisors LLC makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) regarding the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information in The Institutional Risk Analyst. Information contained herein is obtained from public and private sources deemed reliable. Any analysis or statements contained in The Institutional Risk Analyst are preliminary and are not intended to be complete, and such information is qualified in its entirety. Any opinions or estimates contained in The Institutional Risk Analyst represent the judgment of Whalen Global Advisors LLC at this time, and is subject to change without notice. The Institutional Risk Analyst is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or instruments named or described herein. The Institutional Risk Analyst is not intended to provide, and must not be relied on for, accounting, legal, regulatory, tax, business, financial or related advice or investment recommendations. Whalen Global Advisors LLC is not acting as fiduciary or advisor with respect to the information contained herein. You must consult with your own advisors as to the legal, regulatory, tax, business, financial, investment and other aspects of the subjects addressed in The Institutional Risk Analyst. Interested parties are advised to contact Whalen Global Advisors LLC for more information.