The IRA Bank Book | Q2 2023 Industry Outlook
How much of book value do banks lose
as the Fed adjusts interest rates to fight inflation?
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Fintech
Christopher Whalen
R. Christopher Whalen
- 5 days ago
- 4 min
First Take on FDIC Bank Data
If we assume that asset returns will continue to rise, but that bank funding costs will rise 5x asset returns, then US banks have a problem
965 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 13
- 6 min
Update: JPMorganChase & Wells Fargo
But nothing lasts forever in mortgage land or in financials. Stay tuned and pay attention to LT rates and spreads...
492 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 20, 2022
- 5 min
Outliers: CapitalOne, Goldman Sachs & Citigroup
Like most nonbanks (and Goldman Sachs is predominantly a nonbank), volumes are falling and funding costs are rising.
555 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 10, 2022
- 5 min
Update: Crypto Fraud Crumbles as Bank Stocks Surge
Crypto has gone from a sort-of juiced up equity strategy to a distressed credit story in just hours.
438 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 14, 2022
- 2 min
IRA Bank Book Q3 2022
We expect to see reasonably strong earnings for commercial lenders in Q3 2022 as loan yields slowly rise...
280 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 8, 2022
- 5 min
Update: The Bull Case for US Financials
Investors who were buying large caps at 2x book value a year ago are now running away from bank stocks just as fundamentals improve...
509 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 10, 2022
- 5 min
The FOMC Embraces Debt Deflation
The deflation of 2023 is about marking down all types of real assets to the price level that equates with a non-QE world.
666 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 20, 2022
- 5 min
Ukraine & the Return of Credit Risk
Just imagine how global markets will react when Putin deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Eastern Ukraine to avoid a military defeat
538 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 17, 2022
- 6 min
Profile: Morgan Stanley vs Goldman Sachs
Simply stated, Morgan Stanley has a much more diverse and sustainable business model than Goldman Sachs...
406 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 11, 2022
- 5 min
Weak Bank Earnings & Surging Interest Rates = Lower Valuations
Will Fed Chairman Jay Powell fold in terms of further rate hikes if the S&P 500 falls 1,000 points in a day?
491 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 6, 2022
- 4 min
The Next Trade: Banks, Nonbanks and Mortgage Servicing Rights
Many of the startups, investment flows and SPAC transactions that proliferated in 2020-2021 are likely to be casualties in the next several
642 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 7, 2022
- 11 min
The IRA Bank Book Q1 2022 | Credit Risk Returns
We add a new dimension of risk to the normalization of US bank earnings with the Russian war against Ukraine.
550 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 4, 2022
- 6 min
Mortgage Crises Yesterday and Today
As we move into Q4 2021 earnings, keep your eyes peeled for news of restructuring of urban commercial commercial and multifamily properties
779 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 15, 2021
- 7 min
Zombie Banks, Crypto & MSRs
Fact is, we are all staring at computers or handsets, all of which are connected to the internet.
655 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 12, 2021
- 6 min
Bank Earnings Setup: Rebound to 2020
Many of the better managed financials that we track have become sellers of assets rather than buyers in the past several months.
315 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 7, 2021
- 5 min
Banks & REITs Fly as Fundamentals Weaken
If we told you that a group of banks and REITs outperformed fintech stocks during the first nine months of 2021, what would you say?
375 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 1, 2021
- 4 min
Lee Adler: Banks Are As Fragile As Ever
Every time there’s a critical problem in the banking system due to banker malfeasance, the Fed steps in to paper it over....
910 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 25, 2021
- 5 min
Update: Rising Interest Rates & Mortgage Servicing
The Fed’s chief concern is keeping the Treasury debt market open and functional. Liquidity includes cash and risk-free collateral...
689 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 25, 2021
- 7 min
Update: Q1 2021 Bank Earnings
US banks are running at income levels that are less than half of a year ago...
310 views
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