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Whalen Global Advisors
Institutional Risk Analysis
Time to Short the AI Bubble?
Researchers at Apple just released a paper that throws cold water on the "reasoning" capabilities of the latest, most powerful large language AI models. In the paper, a team of machine learning experts makes the case that the AI industry is grossly overstating the ability of its top AI models, including OpenAI's o3, Anthropic's Claude 3.7, and Google's Gemini.
487
Annuities Migrate Offshore? Silicon Valley Syndrome and Bank of America
Even a small decrease in prepayments due to higher LT interest rates could significantly impact the fair value of the Bank of America mortgage portfolio, forcing unrealized losses higher. If LT rates continue to rise, one veteran banker told The IRA yesterday, then BAC and several other large banks are going to start to literally shake apart from unrealized losses on COVID era assets.
601
The Trumpian Wave & Systemic Risk
The common penny stocks of these two appendages of the state, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are up over 600% in the past year, generating huge gains for the likes of Bill Ackman and John Paulson. Bitcoin is up a paltry 50% LTM. Indeed, much like old fintech stocks such as PayPal (PYPL) and Block Inc (XTZ), bitcoin seems to be losing the special novelty that always seems to drive these manic stories. Is bitcoin now just another boring Wall Street ETF?
655
The Single Fed Mandate & Bank Stocks
The Fed's actions in 2008 and again in March 2020 were largely driven by the sole mandate of the central bank -- to keep the Treasury market opening and functioning.
741
Markets & Risk
Banking & Finance
Will Banks Buy More Treasury Bonds?
The connection between expanding the balance sheet via open market purchases of Treasury debt and bank reserves is one of the starkest illustrations of how federal budget deficits translate directly into inflation.
329
Profile: The Bank of New York
As of yesterday's close, BK was right behind SoFi Technology (SOFI) leading the bank surveillance group higher. BK closed yesterday at 14x forward earnings and 1.6x book value, roughly the same PE multiple as JPM but at a lower book value multiple.
168
The IRA Bank Book Industry Survey | Q2 2025
“Our operative assumption is that the strong economy and continued high inflation expectations will mitigate against any interest rate cuts in 2025,” Whalen notes. “We expect to see the FOMC end the shrinkage of the central bank’s balance sheet, which should help to increase the very low growth rates for bank deposits.”
228
Housing Finance in the Age of Volatility: GHLD, UWMC, RKT, COOP, JPM
While GHLD provides a lot of good information about their business, the investor disclosure provided by UWMC is a bad joke, especially when you remember that UWMC is the largest nonbank lender in the US. The Q1 2025 press release is just 9 pages in length and lacks some of the most basic financial information available from UWMC’s peers.
292
Real Estate & Property
Post-Trumpian Fintech Bounce: How High? How Long?
At one point last year, HOOD was up several hundred percent, but has given back much of those gains. Yet the leaders of our finance group have outperformed the broad market.
239
WGA Releases Q1 2025 Bank Industry Survey | Higher for Longer May Throttle Deposit Growth
Industry results in 2024 were reasonably good, but the banking industry is still 200 bp below 2019 levels of asset and equity returns
204
Trumpian Wave Threatens Key Markets
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell now reports up to National Economic Council head Kevin Hassett.
686
Big Losses in Commercial Real Estate & PE in 2025?
Private equity portfolio companies are about 10 times as likely to go bankrupt as non-PE-owned companies.
1,184
Technology & Innovation
Bayview Acquires Guild Mortgage
Truth is, it’s hard to see the leadership of either RITM or UWMC combining with another entity, but the cost pressures in the industry today are driving radical change.
163
Will Banks Buy More Treasury Bonds?
The connection between expanding the balance sheet via open market purchases of Treasury debt and bank reserves is one of the starkest illustrations of how federal budget deficits translate directly into inflation.
329
Do Stablecoins Help or Hurt Crypto?
The intriguing thing about private coin empires is that they are obviously not a positive for existing payment systems, yet neither are they dependent upon crypto. Larger sponsors may be able to create exclusive coin ecosystems without actually touching crypto assets at all. Fiat to AMZN coin, “ZON,” is really all that the sponsor needs.
234
Time to Short the AI Bubble?
Researchers at Apple just released a paper that throws cold water on the "reasoning" capabilities of the latest, most powerful large language AI models. In the paper, a team of machine learning experts makes the case that the AI industry is grossly overstating the ability of its top AI models, including OpenAI's o3, Anthropic's Claude 3.7, and Google's Gemini.
487
Policy & Regulation
Will Banks Buy More Treasury Bonds?
The connection between expanding the balance sheet via open market purchases of Treasury debt and bank reserves is one of the starkest illustrations of how federal budget deficits translate directly into inflation.
329
Ray Dalio is Wrong About the Treasury Bond Market
When Ray Dalio says to be afraid of the bond market, he is asking a question that belongs in the mid-1970s, when the dollar still competed with other currencies and US interest rates were actually affected by interest rates in other nations. But today, with many of the other industrial nations led by Japan, China and the EU literally drowning in public debt, the US is still the leader of the parade.
1,221
The First Crypto Currency: The Dollar
When you buy a crypto currency, you buy an option on finding a greater fool, but nothing more, a transaction that would have provoked contempt in Lincoln’s day.
384
The Single Fed Mandate & Bank Stocks
The Fed's actions in 2008 and again in March 2020 were largely driven by the sole mandate of the central bank -- to keep the Treasury market opening and functioning.
741
Investing & Private Capital
Bayview Acquires Guild Mortgage
Truth is, it’s hard to see the leadership of either RITM or UWMC combining with another entity, but the cost pressures in the industry today are driving radical change.
163
Will Banks Buy More Treasury Bonds?
The connection between expanding the balance sheet via open market purchases of Treasury debt and bank reserves is one of the starkest illustrations of how federal budget deficits translate directly into inflation.
329
Do Stablecoins Help or Hurt Crypto?
The intriguing thing about private coin empires is that they are obviously not a positive for existing payment systems, yet neither are they dependent upon crypto. Larger sponsors may be able to create exclusive coin ecosystems without actually touching crypto assets at all. Fiat to AMZN coin, “ZON,” is really all that the sponsor needs.
234
Time to Short the AI Bubble?
Researchers at Apple just released a paper that throws cold water on the "reasoning" capabilities of the latest, most powerful large language AI models. In the paper, a team of machine learning experts makes the case that the AI industry is grossly overstating the ability of its top AI models, including OpenAI's o3, Anthropic's Claude 3.7, and Google's Gemini.
487
News & Analysis
Bayview Acquires Guild Mortgage
Truth is, it’s hard to see the leadership of either RITM or UWMC combining with another entity, but the cost pressures in the industry today are driving radical change.
163
Will Banks Buy More Treasury Bonds?
The connection between expanding the balance sheet via open market purchases of Treasury debt and bank reserves is one of the starkest illustrations of how federal budget deficits translate directly into inflation.
329
Do Stablecoins Help or Hurt Crypto?
The intriguing thing about private coin empires is that they are obviously not a positive for existing payment systems, yet neither are they dependent upon crypto. Larger sponsors may be able to create exclusive coin ecosystems without actually touching crypto assets at all. Fiat to AMZN coin, “ZON,” is really all that the sponsor needs.
234
Time to Short the AI Bubble?
Researchers at Apple just released a paper that throws cold water on the "reasoning" capabilities of the latest, most powerful large language AI models. In the paper, a team of machine learning experts makes the case that the AI industry is grossly overstating the ability of its top AI models, including OpenAI's o3, Anthropic's Claude 3.7, and Google's Gemini.
487
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