The Institutional Risk Analyst

Researchers at Apple just released a paper that throws cold water on the "reasoning" capabilities of the latest, most powerful large language AI models. In the paper, a team of machine learning experts makes the case that the AI industry is grossly overstating the ability of its top AI models, including OpenAI's o3, Anthropic's Claude 3.7, and Google's Gemini.

TD was up about 6% over the past three months, the only name in our test group with a positive three-month market return, of note.

Some of the smaller holders of MSRs may ask themselves if selling right now is not the best strategy over a 36-48 month horizon. 

Some of the largest banks by assets have dropped from the top quartile into the bottom half of the distribution for the top 100 banks

And just why do financial firms like HOOD, SoFi Technologies (SOFI) and Block (XYZ) talk about EBITDA in their investor materials?

We think it is notable that AMP has underperformed the other members of the group other than SCHW over the past year.

GS had not appeared in the top 25 since we began the indices a year ago, while MS had made it three times.

Private equity portfolio companies are about 10 times as likely to go bankrupt as non-PE-owned companies.

Yes, net loss rates in percentage terms post default are back up to 2010 levels, but the dollar volume of net charge-offs remains very low.

As and when GS can exit the loss leading credit card relationship with AAPL, the performance of the business should improve significantly.

What does the upsurge in repo rates at the end of September suggest? None of the media who supposedly cover the Fed seem able to ask.

The banking industry has segmented into a handful of above-average performers and JPM is the largest leader of these "winners"

How is Goldman going to extricate itself from this profoundly unattractive business with AAPL without destroying Apple Card?

The Q3 interest rate rally still leaves the industry with a negative capital position since the average securities yield is only 3%

The big story nobody is discussing is the fact that large banks led by JPM, BAC and TFC continue to sell off briskly

SCHW needs to take advantage of their strong operating leverage and repair some needless damage done during COVID by inept bank management.

If you were really, REALLY going to do mortgage warehouse lending in today's market, KEY would be the better platform, not BNS.

GS saw loss provisions fall slightly in Q2 2024 to $282 million but the number was still $600 million in the first half of the year...

Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities

The larger banks led the way in January and February, but today the top 25 names in terms of total return include many smaller banks.