top of page
The Institutional Risk Analyst
© 2003-2025 | Whalen Global Advisors LLC All Rights Reserved in All Media | ISSN 2692-1812
Banks | Markets | Finance


Time to Short the AI Bubble?
Researchers at Apple just released a paper that throws cold water on the "reasoning" capabilities of the latest, most powerful large language AI models. In the paper, a team of machine learning experts makes the case that the AI industry is grossly overstating the ability of its top AI models, including OpenAI's o3, Anthropic's Claude 3.7, and Google's Gemini.
-
3 days ago6 min read
377 views


Bank Stocks Down | WGA Bank Top 100 Index: Q2 2025
TD was up about 6% over the past three months, the only name in our test group with a positive three-month market return, of note.
-
May 46 min read
321 views


Trading Points: Banks, Interest Rates & MSRs
Some of the smaller holders of MSRs may ask themselves if selling right now is not the best strategy over a 36-48 month horizon.Â
-
Apr 168 min read
489 views


Fear & Loathing on Wall Street: GS, MS, AMP, SCHW, RJF, SF
Some of the largest banks by assets have dropped from the top quartile into the bottom half of the distribution for the top 100 banks
-
Apr 88 min read
411 views


HOOD: Is the Bloom off the Rose?
And just why do financial firms like HOOD, SoFi Technologies (SOFI)Â and Block (XYZ)Â talk about EBITDA in their investor materials?
-
Feb 134 min read
263 views


Is Ameriprise Overvalued? Is PennyMac Cheap vs the REITs?
We think it is notable that AMP has underperformed the other members of the group other than SCHW over the past year.
-
Feb 37 min read
178 views


WGA Bank Top 100 Index | Q1 2025
GS had not appeared in the top 25 since we began the indices a year ago, while MS had made it three times.
-
Jan 294 min read
192 views


Big Losses in Commercial Real Estate & PE in 2025?
Private equity portfolio companies are about 10 times as likely to go bankrupt as non-PE-owned companies.
-
Jan 136 min read
1,182 views


Taxing Crypto? And Just Where Is That Consumer Recession?
Yes, net loss rates in percentage terms post default are back up to 2010 levels, but the dollar volume of net charge-offs remains very low.
-
Jan 58 min read
418 views


Update: Top Bank Asset Managers
As and when GS can exit the loss leading credit card relationship with AAPL, the performance of the business should improve significantly.
-
Dec 30, 20248 min read
233 views


Liquidity & Rates Fall as Trump Trades Beckon
What does the upsurge in repo rates at the end of September suggest? None of the media who supposedly cover the Fed seem able to ask.
-
Dec 23, 20247 min read
451 views


Q: Is JPMorgan Overinflated?
The banking industry has segmented into a handful of above-average performers and JPM is the largest leader of these "winners"
-
Nov 11, 20245 min read
1,384 views


Update: Citigroup, Bank America and Goldman Sachs
How is Goldman going to extricate itself from this profoundly unattractive business with AAPL without destroying Apple Card?
-
Oct 18, 20247 min read
458 views


IRA Bank Book Q3 2024 Industry Survey
The Q3 interest rate rally still leaves the industry with a negative
capital position since the average securities yield is only 3%
-
Sep 16, 20242 min read
369 views


WGA Bank Top 100+ | Large Banks Retreat, Small Banks Rise
The big story nobody is discussing is the fact that large banks led by JPM, BAC and TFC continue to sell off briskly
-
Sep 11, 20245 min read
428 views


Universal Banks: Should TD Buy Schwab & Sell Its US Operation?
SCHW needs to take advantage of their strong operating leverage and repair some needless damage done during COVID by inept bank management.
-
Aug 25, 20247 min read
769 views


Bank of Nova Scotia + KeyCorp = ??
If you were really, REALLY going to do mortgage warehouse lending in today's market, KEY would be the better platform, not BNS.
-
Aug 13, 20246 min read
548 views


Bank Earnings: JPM, BAC, AX, GS & SCHW
GS saw loss provisions fall slightly in Q2 2024 to $282 million but the number was still $600 million in the first half of the year...
-
Jul 17, 20245 min read
479 views


Goldman Sachs Fails Fed Stress Test
Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities
-
Jul 7, 202410 min read
3,252 views


Who Leads the Asset Gatherers? | SCHW, MS, GS, AMP, RJF & SF
The larger banks led the way in January and February, but today the top 25 names in terms of total return include many smaller banks.
-
Jul 3, 20247 min read
608 views
Christopher Whalen
bottom of page