The Institutional Risk Analyst

New York | Sometimes simple images are the most powerful. The chart below from FRED shows US real GDP change vs. the effective rate for Federal funds over the past five years. Just imagine around Election Day in the US this November, if the Fed funds rate is above the last print in real GDP and the gap between two year Treasury notes and ten year T-bonds is just about nada. Bad for stocks, yeah. But then maybe we see a bond market bull rally because the Street remains so p

First we’ve launched the first volume of The IRA Bank Book, a review of the operating and credit performance of the US banking industry written for institutional investors. US banks have the best financial disclosure in the world, down to the portfolio level, a fact that allows analysts to dig deep if they care to spend the time. They don't. We’ve done the digging for you and present a macro level view of key industry trends. And best of all, you get to pay us for our work.