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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Will Credit Risk Transfer Save the Banks? Are MSRs Overvalued?
How much in synthetic CRT transactions will be done in 2024? Our best guess is many hundreds of billions globally...
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Jun 12, 20249 min read


MBA Aftermath; Profile: Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)
When NYC is forced to recognize reality, it will already be too late to avoid another fiscal crisis.
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May 22, 20247 min read


Joe Biden Goes Subprime; Should Citi Buy NYCB/Flagstar?
Citi is a subprime lender. They should be directly involved in government lending.
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May 20, 20246 min read


Yellen FSOC Punts on Mortgage Servicers; WGA Bottom 25 Banks
Are there bank bargains down in the cellar waiting to be discovered?
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May 13, 20247 min read


Freddie Mac Buying HELOCs? Really Meredith? | UWMC & Disappearing MSRs
We think Whitney’s comments about a surge in new lending from Freddie Mac buying home equity loans are poorly considered
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May 10, 202410 min read


Portfolio Update & Mortgage Survivors
The survivors in mortgage finance optimize operations around purchasing loans from brokers/ correspondents, and direct to consumer (DTC)
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May 8, 20246 min read


TCBI v Ginnie Mae Goes to Trial | Outlook for Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
McCargo's actions and the fact that the case has not been dismissed in its entirety is very unhelpful given current market conditions.
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Apr 21, 20247 min read


Vanguard & Black Rock Control JP Morgan? | PNC & United Wholesale Mortgage
BK and Vanguard are above the 4.9% legal limit on ownership of voting shares of a bank. This fact gives the FDIC et al the power...
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Apr 4, 20247 min read


Small Banks Have Big CRE Risk? Really? | Bank of America Update
The net losses disclosed by BAC and the other large banks at the end of Q4 2023 are significantly understated...
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Mar 25, 20247 min read


Bank Book Q1 2024 Released; Biden Penalizes Consumers Who Refinance
Despite what Joe Biden says about helping Americans with the soaring cost of housing, he really protects Black Rock (BK), Pimco et al
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Mar 10, 20245 min read


Update: UWMC & Rocket; Rate Cut Dreams Fade
Industry leaders believe that the FHFA wants the GSEs to offer issuers "repurchase insurance" to the tune of 25bps per loan.
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Feb 29, 20247 min read


Home Mortgage Rates Falling? Really?
If President Trump starts talking about fixing the federal budget deficit and redeveloping moribund urban real estate, he’d win in November
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Feb 18, 20246 min read


Interest Rates, Mortgage Lenders & MSRs
While there are a great number of people inside the Fed who ponder the appropriate level of reserves in the system, they don't really know
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Feb 15, 20246 min read


Should We Resurrect the Reconstruction Finance Corporation?
We can all pretend that the collapse of valuations for many commercial and multifamily properties is not a major problem. Or we can act now
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Feb 13, 202411 min read


Assume Loss Given Default > 100% | PennyMac & Western Alliance Bank
Q: What do Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Signature Bank and New York Community Bank have in common? Auditor, KPMG.
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Feb 4, 202410 min read


Comments on Basel III Endgame
The Basel III proposal reflects a view of financial risks facing US banks that is decades out of date and ignores market risk
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Jan 3, 20243 min read


End of Fintech? Biden GSE Release?
Is AFRM maturing from a hot new fintech entrant to a familiar face headed for a bank license?? Yikes.
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Dec 31, 20237 min read


Higher Home Prices & Inflation in 2024
This morning, banks are buying funding from the BTFP below 4.85% and selling Fed funds at 5.5%.
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Dec 26, 20235 min read


Recessions Signs in Texas & China
The mood in the Dallas mortgage community is subdued, much like the atmosphere after an especially good party.
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Nov 17, 20236 min read


Housing Finance Outlook Q4 2023
Baring some emergency, the Fed seems on track to keep interest rates at current levels indefintely.
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Nov 14, 20233 min read
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