Update: PennyMac Financial Services
If we are marking balance sheet assets to actual market in the age of deflation, what of the heavily modeled world of servicing assets?
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 26, 20239 min read
Interest Rates, Fintech & MSRs
Regulatory skepticism about mortgage assets could effect financing rates for lenders, which means higher mortgage rates for consumers.
528 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 24, 20235 min read
QE Means Higher for Longer, But No Recession
We look for modest rate cuts in 2025, followed by an equally modest boom in mortgage lending
1,027 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 11, 20236 min read
Jerome Powell's Silent Crisis
The Powell Fed needs to drop short-term interest rates back down to 4% and leave them there indefinitely.
1,477 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 9, 20237 min read
Texas Capital Bank v Ginnie Mae
The legal dispute between Ginnie Mae and Texas Capital Bank makes additional defaults by HECM lenders more likely...
1,035 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 2, 20236 min read
Credit Suisse\UBS to Apollo: Bye, Bye
UBS ultimately seems intent upon running off the remaining US mortgage assets, including a few billion in Ginnie Mae MSR financings
845 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 25, 20236 min read
Will Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Raise Guarantee Fees?
With a 75bp average total gfee, would the market for private label MBS return? Or would conventional lending volumes simply crater?
904 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 18, 20237 min read
Does PacWest + Banc of California + Warburg Pincus = Value?
The Q2 2023 disclosure for PACW suggests an institution that is bleeding cash and operating in extremis...
648 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 23, 20236 min read
Update: Goldman Sachs + Citigroup; Interest Rates Higher Longer?
We continue to believe that combining Citi and GS may make sense in terms of consolidating two capital markets businesses
634 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 9, 20235 min read
Update: Western Alliance Bancorp
With industry losses on every loan closed well north of 200 bp, you might ask yourself why WAL would still be buying conventional loans.
789 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 4, 20236 min read
RITM Goes Multi Asset; TCBI Shrinks Assets, Grows Returns
TCBI needs to keep efficiency in the 50s if they want to survive the coming drought in mortgage lending.
426 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 28, 20235 min read
Washington Trip Notes; Mr. Cooper & PennyMac Financial
The last Treasury Secretary that tried to extend the maturities of US government debt was Jack Lew (2013-2017). Yellen missed an opportunity
653 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 25, 20235 min read
Losses Mount Due to FOMC Policy "Tax"
Inflation is called a “hidden tax,” but lately the tax is not even barely concealed.
1,280 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 20, 20235 min read
Update: U.S. Bancorp & Goldman Sachs
We expect to see USB trading at a discount to JPM and Peer Group 1 until the bank improves its operating leverage to pre-COVID levels.
537 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 16, 20236 min read
What Does Washington Federal Say About Bank Earnings?
We all dodged a bullet in Q2 2023 because the repricing of assets and deposits slowed from the crazy levels seen at the end of March.
952 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 8, 20237 min read
Mortgage Lenders Face Return of a Purchase Market
The “winners” in the mortgage sector will be those larger players with equally large servicing books that can access bank funding
903 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 5, 20236 min read
Housing, China & the Dollar
The world of secured finance is still coming to grips with the idea of several more increases in the federal funds rate this year.
952 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 3, 20237 min read
Top Five Banks: JPMorgan Leads the Pack
JPM is really a large mutual fund with a bank attached, as shown in the table below.
822 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 28, 20237 min read
Profile: Comerica Inc.
If the FOMC raises the target rate for fed funds further, then banks like CMA are likely to come under renewed selling pressure.
1,462 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 26, 20238 min read
Update: Mortgage Lenders, TBA Contango & MSRs
We look for lower prices for legacy MBS and MSRs as new allocations are used up and P&Ls sink deeper into the red...
1,104 views
Christopher Whalen
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