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The Institutional Risk Analyst
© 2003-2025 | Whalen Global Advisors LLC All Rights Reserved in All Media | ISSN 2692-1812
Banks | Markets | Finance


IRA Bank Book Q3 2022
We expect to see reasonably strong earnings for commercial lenders in Q3 2022 as loan yields slowly rise...
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Sep 14, 20222 min read
294 views


Update: The Bull Case for US Financials
Investors who were buying large caps at 2x book value a year ago are now running away from bank stocks just as fundamentals improve...
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Sep 8, 20225 min read
528 views


Pink Floyd: Inflation & Asset Prices
The assumption of price volatility on the part of consumers and business managers is at the heart of inflation expectations
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Sep 6, 20225 min read
495 views


The FOMC Embraces Debt Deflation
The deflation of 2023 is about marking down all types of real assets to the price level that equates with a non-QE world.
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Aug 10, 20225 min read
672 views


Short Collateral & Long Tantrums
Demand for risk-free collateral and liquidity is largely a function of how JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon feels about risk on any given day
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Jul 31, 20228 min read
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Questions for Chairman Powell
QE has created a gigantic interest rate mismatch across markets for banks, non-banks and other financial intermediaries including the GSEs
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Jul 24, 20226 min read
505 views


Should the FOMC Pause Rate Hikes After July?
The real message to the FOMC is this: hike another 75bp in July and then let the Fed funds target sit for a few meetings...
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Jul 21, 20225 min read
603 views


Dollar Remains World Reserve Currency
Once again the US is coming out of a global crisis as the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry.
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Jul 18, 20223 min read
512 views


Top Five US Banks by Market Performance
In times of market volatility and suddenly ended delusions of easy money, the prudent path is to fly to quality.
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Jul 7, 20225 min read
474 views


Hard Landings & Systemic Crypto
Putting dollar leverage under crypto tokens – that is to say, under nothing – makes for infinite dollar risk.
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Jul 4, 20226 min read
572 views


Bank Liquidity & Quantitative Tightening (QT)
A "normal" level for US bank deposits would be closer to $15 trillion than $19.9 trillion today.
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Jun 27, 20223 min read
932 views


The Fed and Housing
Issuing CMOs via the GSEs could help the FOMC out of its trading mess, but represents a monumental irony.
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Jun 20, 20228 min read
1,621 views


QE = Supranormal Credit Risk
Given the demand for safe assets, the true risk free rate today is probably less than zero. Ponder that Chairman Powell
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Jun 12, 20227 min read
563 views


FOMC vs TGA; PennyMac Financial & United Wholesale Mortgage
Net, net, the dynamics in the market are actually forcing interest rates down
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May 25, 20229 min read
649 views


Feldkamp: Paul Volcker, Volatility, Inflation & Honesty
Benevolence, as Chris and I noted in our book "Financial Stability," always gets you more bang for the buck than being miserable.
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May 13, 20225 min read
499 views


Interest Rates, Credit and MSRs
Even as Powell signals willingness to take interest rate targets higher, he has put off a decision on the Fed's balance sheet until June.
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May 4, 20225 min read
507 views


Where is Value in Fintech?
Take the financials and add some unicorn dust in terms of innovation to the mix and perhaps a double-digit PE ratio for PYPL makes sense.
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May 2, 20225 min read
541 views


Flagstar Bancorp & Annaly Capital: All About Visibility
No amount of computer power can really, really enable you to predict when Fred and Wilma are going to sell or refinance their home.
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Apr 28, 20225 min read
323 views


Deflation, Not Inflation, is the Threat
Xi Jinping in China and Putin in Russia have turned their backs on the global economy to retain power
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Apr 26, 20226 min read
1,156 views


Weak Bank Earnings & Surging Interest Rates = Lower Valuations
Will Fed Chairman Jay Powell fold in terms of further rate hikes if the S&P 500 falls 1,000 points in a day?
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Apr 11, 20225 min read
493 views
Christopher Whalen
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