The Institutional Risk Analyst

Powell won’t hit the two percent target, but he won’t change the target either.

Obviously, there should be no interest rate cuts by the FOMC without deficit reduction by Congress.

We think it is reasonable to push expectations of a cut in the target for Fed funds into Q1 2025. 

The fixation with the idea of resolving large zombie banks without public expense is evidence of our collective delusion. 

Only in the strange confines of Washington do you still find people who think that the federal budget deficit is not a problem.

Based upon the three-month returns through the end of Q1 2024, NYCB ranked at the bottom of the 108 public banks in Peer Group 1.

Perhaps Chairman Powell will be kind enough to fall on his sword on way out the door to make things easier for a future Chairman Waller...

We see higher credit costs, narrowing NIM and still rising funding costs squeezing the banking industry in Q1 2024...

More often than not, Fed Governors use media appearances to enhance their personal celebrity rather than doing their jobs.

Industry leaders believe that the FHFA wants the GSEs to offer issuers "repurchase insurance" to the tune of 25bps per loan.

While there are a great number of people inside the Fed who ponder the appropriate level of reserves in the system, they don't really know

Volatility remains perhaps the biggest risk factor today, mostly because of a lack of visibility on unexpected risks.

The key thing to remember with commercial real estate is the change in price volatility and direction that has occurred since COVID.

As the public debt of the US grows, after all, the implicit claim of the Treasury on all private US assets also grows.

The key term for risk managers and investors in 2024 remains unchanged from this year: Volatility.

Simply stated, with T-bills trading significantly above the yield on RRPs, there is no reason for MMFs to leave cash at the Fed

Instead of seeking authority from Congress, Chairman Bernanke and other members of the FOMC merely turned on the public spigot.

One of the effects of QE has been making many banks and real estate investors insolvent, a precursor to debt defaults.

Rising interest rates are not good for bank earnings or bank equity valuations.

Bank earnings can be best described as cautiously mediocre, but as usual the Street proclaimed that three banks "beat the estimates"