Interest Rates & Bank Earnings
The good news for BAC and other banks is that there is a discernable lift underway on the yield of bank balance sheets
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Fintech
Christopher Whalen
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 18, 2022
- 3 min
Dollar Remains World Reserve Currency
Once again the US is coming out of a global crisis as the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry.
490 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 4, 2022
- 6 min
Hard Landings & Systemic Crypto
Putting dollar leverage under crypto tokens – that is to say, under nothing – makes for infinite dollar risk.
556 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 27, 2022
- 3 min
Bank Liquidity & Quantitative Tightening (QT)
A "normal" level for US bank deposits would be closer to $15 trillion than $19.9 trillion today.
894 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 12, 2022
- 7 min
QE = Supranormal Credit Risk
Given the demand for safe assets, the true risk free rate today is probably less than zero. Ponder that Chairman Powell
555 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 4, 2022
- 5 min
Interest Rates, Credit and MSRs
Even as Powell signals willingness to take interest rate targets higher, he has put off a decision on the Fed's balance sheet until June.
477 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 28, 2022
- 5 min
Flagstar Bancorp & Annaly Capital: All About Visibility
No amount of computer power can really, really enable you to predict when Fred and Wilma are going to sell or refinance their home.
304 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 20, 2022
- 5 min
Ukraine & the Return of Credit Risk
Just imagine how global markets will react when Putin deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Eastern Ukraine to avoid a military defeat
536 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 6, 2022
- 4 min
The Next Trade: Banks, Nonbanks and Mortgage Servicing Rights
Many of the startups, investment flows and SPAC transactions that proliferated in 2020-2021 are likely to be casualties in the next several
638 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 31, 2022
- 5 min
Why the FOMC Cannot Sell its Mortgage Bonds
With MBS prices falling, the FOMC may have to accept the natural runoff rate for the MBS in the SOMA for many years to come
3,452 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 28, 2022
- 6 min
Top Five US Banks: USB, JPM, WFC, C & BAC
Valuations for the top five US banks are up slightly as Q1 2022 comes to an end
353 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 21, 2022
- 6 min
Will SOFR Be the Death of Jay Powell?
If the Fed causes another liquidity crisis as it ends QE and shrinks the balance sheet, then Chairman Powell should immediately resign.
1,347 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 12, 2022
- 4 min
Update: Guild Mortgage
In our view, Guild Mortgage is one of the highest quality businesses in the residential mortgage space.
276 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 7, 2022
- 11 min
The IRA Bank Book Q1 2022 | Credit Risk Returns
We add a new dimension of risk to the normalization of US bank earnings with the Russian war against Ukraine.
550 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 1, 2022
- 3 min
When "Force Majeure" Isn't Quite
The imposition of sanctions on Russia is not as comprehensive as some press reports suggest.
324 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 14, 2022
- 6 min
The Curse of Humphrey Hawkins
If you consider QE “stimulus” inflationary, then Fed policy actually accelerated inflation in the November-January period.
799 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 10, 2022
- 6 min
Profile: NexBank Capital, Inc.
Among the ten largest mortgage specialization banks, NexBank had among the best equity returns in Q3 2021
355 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 9, 2022
- 2 min
News: Improving Liquidity for Ginnie Mae Servicing Assets
Collateralized lending in the US was essentially impossible outside of banks from 1925 through the mid-1970s...
271 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 31, 2022
- 4 min
Chris Abate: The Return of Private Mortgages
We see a bright future ahead for the private label loan market....
910 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 27, 2022
- 6 min
Profile: Citigroup (C)
Why does this bank exist? What market does it serve and how will it grow in the future?
269 views
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