Two Inflation Narratives; Credit Suisse & Ginnie Mae MSRs
The big take away from Q4 2022 earnings is that credit expenses are headed higher and at a brisk pace
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Fintech
Christopher Whalen
R. Christopher Whalen
- 6 days ago
- 7 min
Why the FT is Wrong About Ally Financial
Ally is still more finance company than bank and really has no core deposit base worthy of the name.
430 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 25
- 8 min
Silvergate, Reverse RPs and the “Theology of Prosperity”
Crypto, of course, is not an asset as much as a bad idea that was given life by Quantitative Easing
692 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 19
- 9 min
Interview: Mike Patterson, Freedom Mortgage
In this issue of The Institutional Risk Analyst, we speak to Mike Patterson, COO of Freedom Mortgage.
707 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 16
- 7 min
Goldman Drops Restatement; Jamie Dimon Drops the Ball on "Frank"
The Fed’s de facto embrace of inflation encourages misallocation of economic resources on a grand scale....
619 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 13
- 6 min
Update: JPMorganChase & Wells Fargo
But nothing lasts forever in mortgage land or in financials. Stay tuned and pay attention to LT rates and spreads...
430 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 9
- 7 min
Crypto Collateral Damage Mounts
In other words, those residual claims on crypto issuers that have been trading at pennies on the dollar may have no value whatsoever.
628 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 4
- 7 min
Update: Truist, Charles Schwab, U.S. Bancorp & PNC Financial
The largest banks continue to serve as a haven for refugees from crypto fraud schemes and the fintech swoon, but are not cheap
441 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 22, 2022
- 6 min
GNMA, FNMA Seize Assets from Reverse Mortgage Funding Estate
The US government now owns the largest reverse lender in the country.
957 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 20, 2022
- 5 min
Outliers: CapitalOne, Goldman Sachs & Citigroup
Like most nonbanks (and Goldman Sachs is predominantly a nonbank), volumes are falling and funding costs are rising.
522 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 16, 2022
- 6 min
The Year That Was: 2022
Many in the Buy Side chorus are looking forward to lower interest rates, but we are concerned that next year could really be about solvency
604 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 9, 2022
- 5 min
Blockchain, Crypto & Falling Liquidity
Whether we are talking about corporate credit exposures or housing, the short trade may be the place to be over the next year.
470 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 6, 2022
- 1 min
Bank M2M Losses Surge in Q3 to $347 Billion
Rapidly rising interest rates in Q3 2022 pushed down the tangible capital for the US banking industry to negative $1.9 trillion
433 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 17, 2022
- 7 min
Extension Risk Threatens US Banks
There are literally dozens of banks in the US made insolvent by the policy moves of the FOMC over the past year.
1,150 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 15, 2022
- 6 min
Loan Delinquency, EBOs & Ginnie Mae MSRs
It seems obvious that the reported book value metrics coming from many commercial banks, REITs and mortgage banks are a tad inflated...
686 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 2, 2022
- 6 min
Terminal Rates & Conflicted Economists
The cult of ever falling interest rates goes back 50 years and spans the terms of Fed chairs back to Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker...
667 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 28, 2022
- 7 min
Update: Credit Suisse (CS) & PennyMac Financial (PFSI)
Like COOP, volumes are down dramatically from 2021 but MSR values and cash flows from servicing are rising
842 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 24, 2022
- 3 min
AOCI: The Winter of Quantitative Easing
Little attention is being paid to the collateral damage being done by the FOMC to the debt capital markets
696 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 6, 2022
- 6 min
Nonbank Lenders: The Dead Pool
With the Fed doubling down on rate increases, the pressure on all manner of nonbank finance companies and fintech platforms is growing.
606 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 27, 2022
- 3 min
Short QE, Long Volatility
Until the FOMC raises interest rates to more “normal” levels, we don’t expect actual volatility to decline.
427 views
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