First Take on FDIC Bank Data
If we assume that asset returns will continue to rise, but that bank funding costs will rise 5x asset returns, then US banks have a problem
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Fintech
Christopher Whalen
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 23
- 7 min
PacWest Bancorp & Fed Hawks
To survive long-term, both WAL and PACW need to get that beta back down below 2 and closer to 1, but the hawks on the FOMC may not cooperate
2,229 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 7
- 6 min
Measuring Powell's Bank Rate Shock
Q: What happens to net-interest margin for banks when the rate of change in funding costs doubles or more in a single quarter?
3,389 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 4
- 4 min
Banks, Interest Rates & Fed Chairs
Imagine how President Joe Biden will react if Chair Powell needs to announce formal limits on access to US bank deposits.
2,207 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 30
- 6 min
Update: Mr. Cooper & PennyMac Financial
Both PFSI and COOP are navigating the current market well, but we have questions about where the former is headed.
1,154 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 24
- 6 min
Commercial Real Estate & Bank OZK
Banks that do not aggressively reprice liabilities and assets as OZK did in Q1 2023 may be left behind.
1,137 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 19
- 7 min
The Bank Deposit Run Is Not Over
The funding crisis affecting US banks is not over and very definitely not limited to smaller banks.
4,512 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 12
- 8 min
Q1 2023 Bank Earnings: Lower for Longer | JPM USB C WFC BAC
Given that the US Treasury is paying 4% for 90-day T-bills, you can see how far banks have to go to become competitive on rates
1,019 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 9
- 12 min
Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury
The Fed by definition cannot make a profit and is always an expense to the Treasury, thus operating losses are a expense to the taxpayer
3,915 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 3
- 6 min
Update: Charles Schwab (SCHW); Sagent Presentation
Most major banks grew larger during quantitative easing. Now many of these banks will shrink in terms of assets and also earnings in Q1 2023
4,101 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 30
- 6 min
QT, Interest Rates & Bank Solvency
At the Fed, because “confidence” is considered a factor in “policy,” it is OK to fib and obfuscate about the true cost of monetary policy.
2,208 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 26
- 10 min
Update: New York Community Bank
We liked the NYCB + Flagstar story prior to the transaction with the FDIC for the assets and deposits of Signature Bank.
1,116 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 2
- 6 min
RKT Sinks, UWMC Wobbles, RITM Treads Water & Goldman Doubles Down
GS is a securities dealer first and foremost and has no comparative advantage as a bank.
871 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 27
- 6 min
QT & Powell's Liquidity Trap
The Federal Open Market Committee has arguably lost control of monetary policy and has placed America's banks in grave risk.
8,537 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 23
- 7 min
The Return of Credit Risk
Fact is, Dr. Brainard has primary culpability in the growing economic pain being felt around the country.
2,325 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 16
- 5 min
Will We See Double-Digit Residential Mortgage Rates -- Again?
As the FOMC moves short-term rates towards 6%, we expect to take another run at double-digit rates for prime residential mortgage loans.
1,339 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 13
- 8 min
Ginnie Mae - Credit Suisse = ? A Biden MSR Tax? Does BKI + ICE = < 2?
Our view is that the BKI purchase is a horrible deal for ICE shareholders, a value killer of epic proportions
1,008 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 9
- 7 min
Mortgage Wrap; PennyMac Financial, Rithm Capital & MSRs
We suspect that the IMBs will be sellers of conventional assets to defend their Ginnie Mae MSRs. Banks may be buyers of conventional assets
515 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 6
- 7 min
Goldman Sachs + Bank of New York Mellon = ?
The risk-adjusted return on capital for BK is negative and probably lower than Goldman, the highest risk large US bank
705 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 3
- 9 min
Two Inflation Narratives; Credit Suisse & Ginnie Mae MSRs
The big take away from Q4 2022 earnings is that credit expenses are headed higher and at a brisk pace
780 views
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