Short QE, Long Volatility
Until the FOMC raises interest rates to more “normal” levels, we don’t expect actual volatility to decline.
The Institutional Risk Analyst
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R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 22
- 8 min
The Bear Case for Ginnie Mae Issuers
The nightmare scenario in the government loan market is that FHA loan delinquency rises to the point where issuers become insolvent
483 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 18
- 9 min
Inflation, Politics & Fed Chairmen
As the scale of Fed open market operations grew since 2008, volatility has increased, rendering the adjustment from QE to QT problematic
920 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 12
- 8 min
Interview: David Stevens on GNMA Capital Rule & ICE + BKI
The entire mortgage industry will have a single point of failure with the ICE/BKI combination
1,543 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 8
- 5 min
Update: The Bull Case for US Financials
Investors who were buying large caps at 2x book value a year ago are now running away from bank stocks just as fundamentals improve...
447 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 24
- 6 min
Interview: Scott Olson of Community Home Lenders of America
The banks have left the government market. Now Ginnie Mae seems bound and determined to drive the IMBs out of government lending as well
616 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 21
- 7 min
Interest Rates, FinTechs & MSRs
Interest rates are starting to be very positive, and bank deposit rates are barely moving, so pretense of fintech as bank killer is over
475 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 15
- 9 min
Universal Banks | Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, Raymond James & Stifel
Total noncore funding at GS was over $700 billion at the end of Q1 2022 vs $321 billion for MS.
353 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 10
- 5 min
The FOMC Embraces Debt Deflation
The deflation of 2023 is about marking down all types of real assets to the price level that equates with a non-QE world.
651 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 31
- 8 min
Short Collateral & Long Tantrums
Demand for risk-free collateral and liquidity is largely a function of how JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon feels about risk on any given day
827 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 27
- 5 min
Update: Mr. Cooper Group
We agree with the assessment by Leon Cooperman of COOP management that this firm is one of the best positioned IMBs in the industry...
335 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 24
- 6 min
Questions for Chairman Powell
QE has created a gigantic interest rate mismatch across markets for banks, non-banks and other financial intermediaries including the GSEs
491 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 19
- 6 min
Interest Rates & Bank Earnings
The good news for BAC and other banks is that there is a discernable lift underway on the yield of bank balance sheets
341 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 18
- 3 min
Dollar Remains World Reserve Currency
Once again the US is coming out of a global crisis as the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry.
473 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 4
- 6 min
Hard Landings & Systemic Crypto
Putting dollar leverage under crypto tokens – that is to say, under nothing – makes for infinite dollar risk.
535 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 27
- 3 min
Bank Liquidity & Quantitative Tightening (QT)
A "normal" level for US bank deposits would be closer to $15 trillion than $19.9 trillion today.
852 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 12
- 7 min
QE = Supranormal Credit Risk
Given the demand for safe assets, the true risk free rate today is probably less than zero. Ponder that Chairman Powell
537 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 4
- 5 min
Interest Rates, Credit and MSRs
Even as Powell signals willingness to take interest rate targets higher, he has put off a decision on the Fed's balance sheet until June.
469 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 28
- 5 min
Flagstar Bancorp & Annaly Capital: All About Visibility
No amount of computer power can really, really enable you to predict when Fred and Wilma are going to sell or refinance their home.
292 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 20
- 5 min
Ukraine & the Return of Credit Risk
Just imagine how global markets will react when Putin deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Eastern Ukraine to avoid a military defeat
527 views