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The Institutional Risk Analyst
© 2003-2025 | Whalen Global Advisors LLC All Rights Reserved in All Media | ISSN 2692-1812
Banks | Markets | Finance


Bank Earnings Setup Q4 2023
Look for falling rates sooner rather than later as the Fed and other agencies prepare to resolve more bank failures in 2024.
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 11, 20245 min read
619 views

Comments on Basel III Endgame
The Basel III proposal reflects a view of financial risks facing US banks that is decades out of date and ignores market risk
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 3, 20243 min read
755 views


Update: Citigroup Fights for Credibility
Citigroup picked up almost 10 points of book value since the end of Q3 2023.
R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 21, 20237 min read
616 views


Another Progressive New Year?
Many participants in the equity markets are chewing on ski tips this holiday season after boldly predicting lower interest rates in 2024
R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 19, 20236 min read
724 views


Rates Rally Financials, But Credit Fears Remain
The key term for risk managers and investors in 2024 remains unchanged from this year: Volatility.
R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 15, 20237 min read
483 views

Update: Flying Fintechs & Zombie Banks
COIN has been helped by a groundswell of positive comment about crypto in 2023...
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 29, 20236 min read
660 views

FSOC Frets About Nonbank Risk; Goldman Sachs Stepping Back?
GS has the weakest position in terms of funding of the top-ten banks and no real narrative for the business post-Marcus.
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 21, 20236 min read
617 views

Bank Industry Review & Survey Q3 2023
The US banking industry has seen now two consecutive down quarters for net income caused by the Fed’s massive open market operations
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 11, 20233 min read
867 views


Consumer Credit Collapsing? Not Yet...
Sadly for the bears in the audience, nothing would make the banks happier than if consumers would use more credit....
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 5, 20236 min read
1,096 views


Mortgage Lenders Face Return of a Purchase Market
The “winners” in the mortgage sector will be those larger players with equally large servicing books that can access bank funding
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 8, 20237 min read
904 views


Profile: Synchrony Financial
What can SYF tell us about the bleeding edge of unsecured consumer credit?
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 9, 20236 min read
668 views


Ginnie Mae - Credit Suisse = ? A Biden MSR Tax? Does BKI + ICE = < 2?
Our view is that the BKI purchase is a horrible deal for ICE shareholders, a value killer of epic proportions
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 13, 20238 min read
1,052 views


Mortgage Wrap; PennyMac Financial, Rithm Capital & MSRs
We suspect that the IMBs will be sellers of conventional assets to defend their Ginnie Mae MSRs. Banks may be buyers of conventional assets
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 9, 20237 min read
538 views


Update: Bank of America
We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 23, 20236 min read
536 views

GNMA, FNMA Seize Assets from Reverse Mortgage Funding Estate
The US government now owns the largest reverse lender in the country.
R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 22, 20226 min read
1,425 views


Rising Interest Rates? Really?
Since 2008, dollar swap spreads have traded below Treasury yields, suggesting a persistent demand for dollars coming from offshore.
R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 12, 20224 min read
824 views

Bank M2M Losses Surge in Q3 to $347 Billion
Rapidly rising interest rates in Q3 2022 pushed down the tangible capital for the US banking industry to negative $1.9 trillion
R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 6, 20221 min read
519 views

Record Losses for Mortgage Banks Presage Tough Year Ahead
Is 2023 the year of the Return of the Distressed Loan Trade?
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 19, 20221 min read
543 views


Brief: The Return of Home Equity Loans
Every residential mortgage loan made in 2020-2021 is likely to be underwater by the end of 2023
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 7, 20227 min read
1,339 views

Update: U.S. Bank vs. Bank OZK; Q3 2022 Earnings Setup
How will this above-peer performer from Little Rock do in a Fed-induced recession that rivals 2008 in terms of market losses?
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 12, 20227 min read
705 views
Christopher Whalen
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