The Institutional Risk Analyst

Look for falling rates sooner rather than later as the Fed and other agencies prepare to resolve more bank failures in 2024.

The Basel III proposal reflects a view of financial risks facing US banks that is decades out of date and ignores market risk

Citigroup picked up almost 10 points of book value since the end of Q3 2023.

Many participants in the equity markets are chewing on ski tips this holiday season after boldly predicting lower interest rates in 2024

The key term for risk managers and investors in 2024 remains unchanged from this year: Volatility.

COIN has been helped by a groundswell of positive comment about crypto in 2023...

GS has the weakest position in terms of funding of the top-ten banks and no real narrative for the business post-Marcus.

The US banking industry has seen now two consecutive down quarters for net income caused by the Fed’s massive open market operations

Sadly for the bears in the audience, nothing would make the banks happier than if consumers would use more credit....

The “winners” in the mortgage sector will be those larger players with equally large servicing books that can access bank funding

What can SYF tell us about the bleeding edge of unsecured consumer credit?

Our view is that the BKI purchase is a horrible deal for ICE shareholders, a value killer of epic proportions

We suspect that the IMBs will be sellers of conventional assets to defend their Ginnie Mae MSRs. Banks may be buyers of conventional assets

We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks

The US government now owns the largest reverse lender in the country.

Since 2008, dollar swap spreads have traded below Treasury yields, suggesting a persistent demand for dollars coming from offshore.

Rapidly rising interest rates in Q3 2022 pushed down the tangible capital for the US banking industry to negative $1.9 trillion

Is 2023 the year of the Return of the Distressed Loan Trade?

Every residential mortgage loan made in 2020-2021 is likely to be underwater by the end of 2023

How will this above-peer performer from Little Rock do in a Fed-induced recession that rivals 2008 in terms of market losses?